Analysis for AUDUSD: Bearish Outlook 1. U.S. Inflation Trends: - Recent Data: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 3.4% year-over-year in December, the highest in three months. This rise was more than expected, indicating a continued inflationary pressure. - Core Inflation: Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and...
From a fundamental perspective, this pair has aggressively recovered upward. This is attributed to the downward trend shift of the dollar and projections for the NZD, which include talks of a potential interest rate hike in the first quarter of the upcoming year. However, the U.S. economy is showing signs of cooling down, leading to projections of rate cuts...
In the world of trading, one of the most influential factors that can either make or break a trader is the mind. How often have we found ourselves saying, "I should have done this" or "I would have done that" after a trade has unfolded? Yet, when we were in the heat of the moment, those seemingly obvious solutions never crossed our minds. To overcome this common...
The price has been on a significant bullish rally, breaking historical highs. This suggests that the price has encountered strong buying interest, indicating the presence of buy-side liquidity. From a technical perspective, this suggests that a retracement may be imminent. As further confirmation, on the daily chart, we can see that the price reached the...
There are several reasons why we could see a bullish move in the USD/CAD currency pair: 1. **Moderating Canadian Inflation**: Multiple sources, including RBC Economics, NBF, and CIBC, suggest that Canadian inflation is expected to moderate in November. This is primarily driven by factors like a drop in gasoline prices, easing food price growth, and a slowdown in...
The reason why I am still firmly convinced that this movement is going to happen is supported by several compelling factors. Let's explore them in detail: 1.Non-commercials continue to aggressively add long positions in this currency pair. This indicates a strong bullish sentiment and suggests that these market participants have high expectations for its future...
The reasons why we can expect gold to see more downward movement are as follows: Decreasing inflation: If inflation expectations decrease, it can reduce the demand for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and as a safe haven during inflationary periods. Reduced demand for gold due to decreased inflation concerns could exert downward pressure on its...
To obtain this information, we need to look at four things: -Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy. -US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor...
Before we begin, we need to understand what liquidity is. A market with high liquidity is one where there is a large number of buyers and sellers willing to trade in that particular asset. This means that there is a high availability of buy and sell orders, allowing transactions to be executed quickly and with minimal impact on prices. Where are the most liquid...
The price is extremely bullish in all major time frames. If we look at the non-commercial's positions, we can see that short are aggressively increasing in JPY. Meaning JPY is getting weaker. Monthly: The price is in the retracement phase. If you take the fib form low to high of the retracement, .5 fib level is in confluence with important structure that the...
The main idea of this analysis begin with an important low that have not been liquidated yet. The monthly low of April 3, 2023 is where the price is moving to in short term. Before the price make a reversal to start moving higher this important level needs to be liquidated. Fundamentals Odds are highest for an agreement late tonight or tomorrow, Goldman said,...
What does it consist of? It consists primarily of 3 candles, and the fourth one is where we will enter the operation. In a bearish scenario the High of 2nd candle must be higher than the high of the 1st candle. The high of the 3er candle must be below the high of the 2nd candle. The 4th candle must re test the point of origin of the 3er candle. How can you use...
The Gold has been declining the last couple of week. The market is currently very optimistic about the debt ceiling negotiation. I see the dollar getting stronger. Markets are pricing in a 37.8% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Monthly We can clearly see at the highs a triple top between the price of 2067 and 2075. The...
The main reasons this move more likely will happen are the followings: -If we look the CFTC, non commercials are shorting JPY aggressively with 117,420 short positions open. 23,135 of those positions were open last week. Only 36,760 positions are long. This means that JPY is getting weaker because non commercials are shorting more than longing. -If we look the...
The market is currently going through a period of uncertainty. The market is very optimist about the Debt Ceiling agreement. This is definitely going to be a Catalyst this week and half of the following week. If the agreement is seal we could see a strong dollar. This trading idea is based on what is the price doing in Daily time frame. Also taking into...
In the monthly the price is testing a Supply zone. We could expect a move to the downside. In the weekly the price is over extended. Also, the price is testing a supply zone which means that a possible move to the down side is coming In the Daily the situation is the same. The price is over extended and rejecting a supply zone. All the Higher time frame are in...
Us30 has a huge divergence with Nas100 and S&P500 . These 3 index usually behave the same but lately Us30 has been making a strong bullish move while Nas100 and S&P500 are holding way below. There are multiples catalytics this mont and the following month that can help this move to happen. In my opinion the move has started with the Federal Fund Rate interest rate...
All the reasons we could expect the correction in Dow Jones. There all multiples confluences that supports this idea 1.The price has took the liquidity from previous low. The price has strongly rejected the zone 2.The price is also too extended. When price is over extended the immediate action that we could expect form price is a correction. 3. The Most important...