WillSebastian

WillSebastian

Oil has continued to be subdued post election, with no real demand feeding into it. Price action consists of strong momentum south side into key area(s) seen previously for longs. For that reason, I hold a long bias, but only lightly as we are rushing back to lows (no clear strength/investor willingness) and current price action represents the same story (higher...

01:54

WillSebastian

GBP/USD waning in demand post retail sales, which have given momentum to the USD. This is similar to the Trump effect we saw recently. Lower Timeframe market moves tell a great story in how sentiment is shaping. Watch on.

WillSebastian

Short side bias is coming into Yens after todays USD weakness (slight risk off) and flows into JPY accordingly. Slight talk of intervention has also helped stall the weakening of the Yen. Any further weakness, perhaps on any more risk on sentiment bias and we may see further moves by the Japanese Govt. Would not add anything significantly long at all. Only...

WillSebastian

Post Election we have seen a waning demand for oil, with the last Administration keeping it at sustained lower prices. Despite a turnaround somewhat in sentiment on the day, there has been no enormous follow through of oil inflows so far. Momentum comes into today to the upside, but not willing to short until there is something significant to the upside.

WillSebastian

Long side impetus flooded Markets on economic hopes via election results. Since then, we have seen a slight fall on Risk Off Sentiment and outflows on the USD, after some FED comments last night. Overall Market sentiment remains reasonably stable and may the case traders temporarily feel the last move was overpriced. Awaiting retail sales. Anything stronger may...

WillSebastian

Whispers of Intervention (again) by the Japanese Govt have come across the board as the USD drives higher. Japanese officials are aware of demand into USD post Trump Election and will be monitoring the weakening of the JPY carefully. We've seen several Japanese interventions in recent history, and anything more would likely deliver a larger fall back to lows to...

WillSebastian

Sentiment case largely supports risk currencies at the moment (we have both here). Long term trend supports NZD with the BOC sticking to a fast cut cycle. Looking long at lows on any price rejection and movement of long side bias.

10:03

WillSebastian

Here's an addition to my price action Tradingview series. We will use Replay Bar Trading to go over key price action rules and how to create something consistent. In this video I close 30/30 trades in gains. Enjoy.

WillSebastian Updated 

As Trump gains all swing states and takes hold of congress, he has a mandate to make a lot of changes. Investors typically view this as inflationary, as well as pro-growth. This has fed into Markets this week and is providing a large amount of Risk On Sentiment Bias. That means investors are withdrawing from typical safe haven assets (Gold, Yens etc) and...

WillSebastian

The recent fall seen on the EURUSD is reflective of growing USD strength within a major 'Risk On' market. Investors far preferring to hold USD than most major currencies, except risk currencies like the CAD/NZD/AUD. EUR and GBP getting left behind slightly due to natural investor preference. We know the ECB is fairly tentative on lowering rates as they have...

WillSebastian

The drop from highs comes after an extreme rally for over a year. Often, with most Markets when you have one period of extreme, Markets eventually unfold and develop into the next phase or trend, which is sentiment driven. In this case, Gold essentially de-pegged from its classic and traditional safe haven stance to become a free spirit. Sentiment case came from...

WillSebastian

Tron has beaten it's ATH amongst the Risk On Sentiment of Markets post Trump Election. It's always ideal to exit at ATH's if possible, as beyond here you cannot put an exact $ amount or % Chance of X Price. Also may see larger profit taking and drops, allowing you to take re-longs lower.

WillSebastian

EURGBP sits at considerable historic lows. Look over history. What happens at this area? Would you like it long or short?

WillSebastian

The FTSE has shown so much sideways movement in and around highs historically, as investor wonder whether there is a bull or bear case. Initial growth stats looked reasonable, but the Labour Govt's budget has ripped into the hopes of business in the UK. Higher taxes will mean lower business revenues, and all sorts of Economic headwinds to follow. I am still...

14:45

WillSebastian

Hey, In this replay bar training session I use only my eyes and price action. Seeing charts for thousands upon thousands of hours really does help. We will also cover some scripts that will assist.

WillSebastian

If you look over the main USD pairs (GU/EU/NU/AU/UC) you will notice that the drag on antipodeans and USDCAD is way harsher than it is on the EU/GU. That's because of the effect risk markets have on risk currencies. When there is confidence in markets, AUD, NZD and CAD are more vulnerable to inflows as traders are willing to take on more risk and bet on them. So...

WillSebastian

We have seen various instances of Japanese Govt intervention and the propping up of a weak Yen. The Yen tends to get to seriously weak points like this as a result of their MP stance (low rates, high exports). The FED rate still sits much higher, as do most major economies. Japan benefits from a weaker currency until it gets too weak. If we see any further...

03:45

WillSebastian

AUD/USD has shown some momentum as the previous USD strength move fades. Traders likely have digested the Trump effect (potentially inflationary) and USD markets are settling. We know the RBA has had a recent hawk view and is typically a risk currency. Inflows from here would not be surprising given current sentiment and Tech setups off from local lows.