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BTC may be ready for its next up-leg starting Wednesday, April 28, when the upcoming US Federal Reserve (central bank) meeting concludes. The Fed's press conference at the conclusion of these meetings often moves markets, as the Fed Chairman answers questions about the economy and reaffirms the Fed committee's very dovish position. The last few Fed meetings have...

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UPDATE 2 The current plunge stopped at just the right place... at the second upward trendline (purple). This is the lower trendline which extends back to last December, when BTC broke through its previous high of $20,000. The plunge also stopped at a recent support line (green) at around $51,500. Despite the severity and speed of the current plunge, BTC was...

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UPDATE 1 I just wanted to add that the blue and purple trendlines are the price's lower bounds. As is often the case, the price rises in bursts well above these trendlines. So BTC could very well hit $100,000 several weeks before September 1st, perhaps as early as June/July. ORIGINAL Despite some sluggish consolidation recently, BTC is still on its...

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Despite some sluggish consolidation recently, BTC is still on its longer-term trendline (blue). This trendline started when BTC finally broke through its all-time high of around $20,000 back in December 2020. From that point in December, we see two trendlines (blue and purple) which are quite close to each other. According to the higher blue trendline, BTC...

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UPDATE 1 Look at how the price stops so perfectly at the lines of this channel (blue lines). As I describe in my original post below from yesterday, this is a bullish pattern, and BTC should surge higher soon. But I just wanted to add how remarkable it is that the price (not just of BTC but also of all other stocks and commodities) will stay within a channel...

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BTC is at a critical point here, right at the top of a descending bear channel that widens at the bottom, signifying more downside may be possible. BTC needs to break out of this channel this weekend, or we could see another down leg. Even so, the future of BTC is obviously very bullish. It is still within 10% of its all-time high, and the peak we get after a...

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BTC has been flirting with the $53,000 level for just over a month (yellow line). This level was resistance for a while (red dots), but has recently been a strong level of support (green dots). The consolidation seems to be coming to an end (blue line). We should see BTC break-out to the upside in a week or two.

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Well folks. Patterns last as long as they last, and then they're gone. We can't know ahead of time when a pattern will end. Even though this particular pattern of 4-5 week up-spurts held for a while, BTC seems to be bucking that pattern now. So rather than keep readers holding on to something this uncertain, I think I'll end this particular chain of...

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UPDATE 4.1 As I mentioned in Update 4, BTC is starting this week above the 4-week moving average (purple line). A gap like this, either above or below the 4-week MA, usually closes quickly before moving on. BTC is doing just that right now, closing the gap by falling down toward the 4-week MA. This is normal. Whenever the price moves too far from the 4-week...

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UPDATE 4 Two weeks in, two more to go. BTC has been following a repeating pattern that is now repeating for a 4th time. The previous 3 up-legs lasted 5, 4 and 4 weeks respectively. The current up leg is about half-way, with 2 weeks gone and about 2 or 3 more to go, which should take us to over $80,000 by the end of March. Keep in mind that BTC is starting...

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UPDATE 3 Steady as she goes. BTC seems to be on its way along another up leg. The last 3 up legs lasted 5, 4 and 4 weeks respectively. The current up leg already has one up week, so it likely has another 3 or 4 to go, which should take us to $84,000 by the end of March. Notice that in the last 2 up legs (just before points "C" and "E"), the last 2 weeks of...

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UPDATE 2 Last week's close below the 4-week moving average (purple line) seems to have marked another bottom (point "F"). Generally, weeks that close below the 4-week MA mark the end of a correction, while weeks that open below the 4-week MA mark the beginning of another up leg. (Just like point "D", and many other similar occasions in the past.) The last 2...

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UPDATE 1 BTC is starting a new week at a very good place, below the 4-week moving average (purple line). The 4-week moving average gives us a very good indication of what to expect over the near term. Here's why... Above the 4-week MA: Whenever the price extends high above the 4-week moving average, BTC tends to have a bad week to correct back down to the...

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Hey, folks. If we look at the weekly BTC chart using a 4-week moving average (purple line), we notice a very consistent pattern that just might be forecasting a jump to $84,000 by the end of March. LEG 1: The recent rally started back in October (point "A"), at around $10,000, and rising to around $20,000 (point "B"). Leg 1 took 5 week and ran up about $10,000....

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UPDATE 6 Support line "B" is still holding at around $48,000. A little more base-building here and BTC should be ready for its next leg up. One possible catalyst to drive it higher will likely be the approval of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package in the US. This will weaken the US dollar, and thus lift all things priced in USD, including gold, silver,...

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UPDATE 5 BTC is finding more support at around the $48,000 level ("B" line). This level is becoming strongly entrenched, and has been quite prominent over the past month or so, making it a good place to add more BTC . The lower volatility of the past couple of days indicates BTC is stabilizing, setting a base for another launch upward. The delay to $60,000 is...

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UPDATE 4.1 An important reminder regarding "resistance/support" levels: If a certain price level provides a lot of resistance going up, it will usually provide a lot of support coming down. Conversely, a price level that provides little resistance going up will usually provide little support coming down. This is why BTC quickly dropped through the "C" line this...

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UPDATE 4 BTC's price seems to have stabilized at the previous "B" support line, which means it is holding on to prior gains. This is one of those 4-steps-forward and 2-steps-back type of situations. Long bull runs have frequent bearish pauses scattered throughout. Over the long term, BTC's 4-year cycle is quite solid, as I have explained in my other posts...