Hey, folks. If history repeats itself, BTC should finally break above its current resistance by the US presidential election in early November, 2020. Here's the pattern... Blue lines show the resistance. From its peak of Dec 2013 to its halving in Jul 2016, BTC remained contained below a line of resistance drawn from the peak to the halving. Similarly, from...
Comparing some data from BTC's first 2 halvings seems to show a remarkable repeating pattern. Will it hold again? 1st halving: November 2012, around $40 at the time of the halving. 2nd halving: July 2016, around $600 at the time of the halving. 3rd halving: May 2020, around $9,000 at the time of the halving (where we are now). Notice the spacing of time... From...
BTC has stayed remarkably contained within the peak-trough triangle depicted above with razor-sharp precision. Now it is nearing the vertex of that triangle. By the end of June it will have to break out... either up or down. Which way will it go? Long term it will be up, especially after the May halving. But the true rip higher will likely take place 12-18...
March 6, 2020 @ 3:35 pm EST ... CNBC just reported a "rumor" passed to a reporter, indicating the US Federal Reserve will announce another interest rate cut at the conclusion of their meeting next Wednesday, March 18. More cuts are expected in Q2 or Q3. A person "in the know" reportedly indicated the US interest rate will go down to 0% (that's the overnight...
Hi, folks. In case you haven't heard, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (half a percent) by its next meeting scheduled for March 17-18 (some say possibly before then) in order to offset the negative impact of the Coronavirus. Many other central banks in Europe and Asia are also expected to cut their rates. This will...
Hey, folks. I found some interesting data on the effect that the first 2 halvings had on the price of Bitcoin. I found that BTC moved up by about the same factor both times, and then dropped by about the same factor both times. So I took those up and down factors and multiplied them by the current price to get some projections. If the first 2 halvings followed...
BTC responded to the US FOMC interest rate cut as expected, it rose. But only just a little. The reason BTC rose these past couple of days is because a lower US interest rate "eventually" hurts the US dollar, which boosts the value of anything priced in USD. Thus a rise in BTC:USD. But the USD did not fall in response to a cut in interest rates as it should...
BTC has been consolidating lately, bouncing off a solid support line going back to the end of May, at around the $9,000 level. This level used to be resistance, but then became support (blue arrows), which is usually a sign that the bull run is still intact. So what might get BTC out of its current consolidation triangle? As I mentioned in a prior post, much of...
After a nice quick bounce up from point E of the recent descending wedge (blue), BTC showed great follow-through as it rode that momentum clear through the upper band of the channel. And with great volume too, signifying a lot of buying interest. We can now see the first part of the next trendline (green) beginning to take shape. It's still too early to tell if...
BTC is still consolidating inside of the recent down channel (blue). I just wanted to update the lines a little. We have a new E point in the current A-B-C-D-E correction. Support levels are still the same. First is ~$9,600 where we are now (which is important because it was support at point C at the bottom of the last correction (purple). Second is ~$8,850,...
BTC extended its current corrective phase from a classic A-B-C pattern into an extended A-B-C-D-E pattern. This is because it failed to clear point A on its latest move up. You'll notice that in the previous A-B-C correction (purple), the price did manage to clear point A on the way up, and thus kept on going. But this time, it stopped at A on the way up, and...
Well, BTC took one last nose dive to penetrate the lower band of its recent descending wedge (blue), but only momentarily (thankfully). It quickly returned back into the wedge , and then continued straight through it, exiting the wedge to the upside. This should signify that the recent consolidation is finished. But where does it go from here? Looking back at...
BTC is at what looks to be near the end of a descending wedge (blue). Descending wedges are signs that a corrective phase is almost over, as price swings tighten and narrow down to a point. This means buyers are coming in more quickly each time, and will eventually exhaust the sellers. When that happens, the only way to go is up, like happened after the last...
BTC may have possibly put-in another head-and-shoulders pattern, this time a reverse H&S, or upside-down H&S. It registered a normal H&S back on June 26-27, which is typically a top. Sure enough, the price soon dropped into an A-B-C corrective pattern. But this time we have a reverse H&S, which is typically a sign of a bottom, with a strong potential for an ...
Well, BTC ran into the same problem it had before... it banged its head at the $13K level (purple), broke a hole in the ceiling tiles, and then fell down from it, just like it did during the last head-and-shoulders. Like I mentioned before, $13K is proving to be a tough psychological barrier, like it was at the last shoulders, and again yesterday. Now BTC has an...
OK. So BTC broke upward from the bullish triangle (blue). Now what? Well, it stopped at a very important line of resistance - the shoulders line of the recent head-and-shoulders (purple), at just under $13,000. This is an important psychological barrier to clear, because the last time it rose above it (the head part of the H&S) it didn't stay above it for...
So today, the lines look like this: Bull triangle (blue) with an apex near the end of July 8th. Let's hope it breaksout to the upside!
They say markets take the elevator going down and the stairs going up. BTC has certainly been following that pattern lately. Currently it is in a nice up-channel (blue), with regular steps up (purple). The next step up looks to be due any time now. If it maintains this trajectory, it could test $14,000 again by July 7th or 8th.