Technical:
- strong mirror support.
- false breakdown below that mirror support and retest from above.
Fundamental:
- number of futures contracts increasing from recent lows; / long
- seasonal refinery maintenance (now) will finish in Nov-Dec ; / long
- end of China's lockdowns; / long
- price cap on Russian oil; / long
- OPEC+ 2MMbls/d cut from november /...
- potential aim for takover (I suppose by VRTX ) . Company has 2.5B in cash, no debt with market cap about 4.5B$ (EV = 2.0 B)
- solid pipeline and probably will be first who get FDA approval for commercial CRISPR product
- got most of up front payment for milestones in CRISPR among competitors ( about 1b$ from Vertex and collaboration with Bayer). BEAM for example...
1) Crisper has a lot of cash on hand to survive through tightening of QE and fund pipeline without dilution
2) Potential takeover by $VRTX or other compamy at current prices VERY possible.
Thesis:
Currently we are at wave 4.
There are no significant volumes btw 78$ and 135$. That explains steep drop.
Idea:
If 90$ support holds - that confirm downtrend reverse and commencing of wave 5.
Open long position.
Possible way up to all time highs in 2023-24.
GTA!
All risks already in price IMO. Short downtrend most probably soon will change to bullish as fundamental improves.
Triger: latest news about ABBV & Galapagos Phase 2 study in CF
