adatherton

adatherton

Suggests current drop extends to 14.25% before full recovery.

adatherton Updated 

EURUSD Nov 19 Fractal Fits better when 4 Nov 19 top is mapped to 16 Jan 20 top, not 31 Dec 19 top, which implies bottom is 1.0980 not here (1.1100) ot 1.0991. However, we are talking 20-30 pips. It's still a buy on both fractals SL say 1.0950, TP last high 1.1220 RR 3.5

adatherton Updated 

GOOGL - depends on earnings of course, but more downside potential than up. Stock routinely underperforms other FANGs. Short 1375, SL 1420 TP 1065, RR 6.9

adatherton Updated 

A consumer staple defensive, unaffected by tariffs. ER May 1, but would need big miss (like Jan 18) to drop, and in any event lower revenues already in guidance and therefore estimate. Indebted, so benefits from no-hike policy, not really affected if USD falls. Just broke out, so buy retest of breakout line for top of channel. 2% SL below last low. BUY 191 SL...

adatherton Updated 

Silver is a strange one, the chart looks like a volatility chart, ie sudden spikes up, which then slowly fade (unlike stocks which do the reverse). The last cycle from Jun 16 to Jun 18 was a classic bearish descending triangle. Price action from summer 2019 looks remarkably similar to May 2016 onwards, we are now at Nov 2016, which means this is just the place to...

adatherton Updated 

Don't expect markets to crash before Summer. Sell in May?

adatherton Updated 

Oil heavily oversold, and price action very similar to previous approaches to the $50 line in the sand. Suggest a buy at 50.80, SL 49.90, target 60. Or even start now (52.63)

adatherton Updated 

Everyone's talking about a weaker dollar, but I don't think we're there yet. Only a break of 95.80 would confirm. Have taken a fairly tight stop, although the full stop to, say, 95.50 would still be an acceptable trade. In fundamentals, there is no particular reason that EUR should go up, which is 57.6% of DXY. Contrarian trade BUY 96.80 (Market) SL 96.20 TP...

adatherton Updated 

HSI has pushed through the 28200 barrier which is the two-year 38.2% and one year 61.8% barrier, but has now reached the confluence of two channels, both of which suggest resistance and a pullback. There is clear channel and earlier low support at 26700. It’s not a great trade, but here is a good entry point, shorting 28400 (market). I have placed the stop at...

adatherton Updated 

DIS. Very strong, but EPS estimate (Feb 11) at 1.48 is three times the actual last time. Also bearish wedge and tramlines/pitchfork. Great long-term stock but maybe better to buy lower. PE could well get back to 25 however, implying 176 on current earnings.

adatherton Updated 

LTI.L - technicals are horrible now the 38.2% level has been breached, but I think this might be a false breakdown, as the P/E ratio is the lowest in its history. Buy for a recovery to 1516p? The drop has largely been caused by the Morningstar downgrade and the removal from HL Top funds for conflict reasons. The fund itself is fairly solid.

adatherton

Dow Theory DJT leading DJI by 15 months. 1987-style crash bottoms on election day. Just an idea

adatherton

TSLA looks a lot like October 2013 (log chart) There;s a bit of a trade here. Buy 558.31 pullback, SL 341.52, below 17/18 consol, and a target of 1214. Bit of a stretch though, using log charts.

adatherton Updated 

Fibs very significant on way down, but not such much since reversal. Nevetheless trend is up. Here's an approximate plot based on fibs. Note yields currently oversold (Bonds are inverse of yields, best ETF is IEF

adatherton Updated 

GBPUSD Nov 19 Fractal 60m Buy here (1.3010) SL 1.2885 (pre election top, not spike) TP 1.3465 (below Dec 23 low) RR 3.81

adatherton Updated 

Tight YCI - 2Y note minus 3M note (blue) Tracks SPX (orange) well from Apr 19. suggests a pullback to 3070 The US10Y/US03M due to invert as well.

adatherton Updated 

USD follows channels. Currently at a top going into the Fed. 29 Jan 2020

adatherton Updated 

Here's the pattern again, plenty of correct fib touches. Let's see. Limit sell .6930 for .6620, SL .7, RR 4.43