akikostas

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Mister X marked the spot. He did it again in January of 2023. And apparently, he called it again. Unfortunately for the markets, mister X has a double identity. Mr. ❎ = Mr. ➡️ (mister x is my homie mister right) Classic technical analysis proves them right. 1. Volatility VIX is compressing, forming a triple bottom. (amongst other taboo signals) 2....

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SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train. Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar! But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves. Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain. Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX. And VIX is as bullish as it...

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This is a period of recession, a period when hands change. Last becomes first and first becomes last. Curiously, if you mix and match the main indices, you will get bored of the same shape appearing over and over again. They all appear in the same period. This stuff is hidden in plain sight... NDQ vs DJI SPX vs NYA NDQ vs RUI RUI vs NYA RUA vs DJI This...

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When in doubt, zoom out. Never rush into conclusions. And when a chart troubles you, change your perspective. The majority of ideas posted here were ultra-bearish when Bitcoin reached 16k levels. The majority of ideas posted here were ultra-bearish when SPX reached 3.5k levels. The trader's were not to blame. The charts were dreadful. And everybody...

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A few months ago, Bitcoin experienced a near-death situation. Very few of us realized the importance of that event, and the risks that were involved. And now, even though Bitcoin has moved far from the bottom, it is still on the edge of a blade. We have heard it on the news. Bitcoin has broken even. Everybody who has held Bitcoin is on average profitable. It...

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Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation...

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A "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible...

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The Big One. The big question. Buy or sell? A question is easy. An answer can be hard. Most of us here trade because we believe we have a grasp on the answers. And we have several methods on our toolkit to reach a conclusion. One of these methods is belief . That's what we gamble upon. Belief on indices, stocks, ETFs, currencies is what makes us buy them and...

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Just when I thought SPX was bearish... ...the bulls pull me back in. Not many of us in here made millions from trading. One of the reasons is that the markets are weird. Just when we be lie ve that the bottom is in, another bottom appears. Just when we be lie ve that more down is coming, no more down comes. When you open TradingView, and look at the prices,...

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Trading is a game of poker. - Capitalism is a dirty business. - Like war? - Not exactly. It has important rules one must follow. A game about money is a cold blooded game. One player must deceive the other to win, the so called bluff. Fear is a weapon of war. The house always wins. ... and many more which I don't know. The best bull traps are...

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The markets simply refuse to give up. The birds are speaking to them, but nobody listens. Gold, still living inside a massive bearish wedge pattern, is almost ready to print a death cross. The 1M, 2M and 3M timeframes print a similar picture. The 2M chart is beginning to give in. Volatility between MAs is keeping these still glued together, unable to figure...

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Yesterday I threw away all the indicators I have been using. A lot of dirt has cluttered my screen for too long. I have also made many custom ones, I threw them out too. But I kept just one, a moving average. Every* indicator refers to price after all. In the end, price discounts everything. No price indicator can tell us something price doesn't tell. The...

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A simple analysis is a good analysis. In this short and simple idea, I will do some rudimentary trend analysis in SPX. Most importantly, the behavior the famous index had, when it followed and violated long-term trends. For each chart, I will take a step back in time and attempt to get into the mind of the traders that came before us. Trends will be defined from...

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The changes we expect need time to take shape. Some of them might come sooner rather than later. Yield rates are into a clear breakout. Big moves need more time to take shape than small ones. For illustration purposes a sine wave can be plotted to showcase the major cycles of the balance-of-power. The cycle above lasts 32 years. If we expect a major move from...

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The point of TradingView (and being a human/trader in general) is to learn from your mistakes. I did make some mistakes. Perhaps this idea by itself is another mistake. But I cannot do any different. I must speak out about what I see. For the past year I tried to understand the pressures that are pushing prices higher, equities lower. It is important in analysis...

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The Bear Extermination mission is now complete. There are no bears alive to tell the story. Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners. After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls. The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby...

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Price action discounts everything. The most important included. It discounts prejudgement. Price discounts everything every time... ...except when we don't want to allow it to change our hypotheses. High yield rates are synonymous with recession. We are convinced that high yield rates is the thing the majority hates. From this chart above, we conclude that this...

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This year has been very boring... Lot's of horizontal movement, not many interesting news. Well, except of course that "a couple" of banks went bust. But if I didn't tell you that, you couldn't tell where in this chart this occurred... SPX, and the market in general, has been too stubborn despite the importance of the events occurring. On the one hand, this...