akikostas

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One cannot predict the future, but if they are wise, they can try and learn from the past. We are witnessing a major shift, from decades of QE to possible decades of QT. These environments are just parts of the eternal cycle. Just like summer comes and goes, so do the balances of the economy. Now we might be witnessing a super-cycle. Currency cost is at a 5000...

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I am not lying. I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it. I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious. Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of...

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Ordinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When...

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Europe and especially Germany (the biggest power in Europe) have suffered this year due to the energy crisis. There is more background though... The US has performed well until now. This period of US dominance is failing. The chart above is respecting a long-term trend. Now, price is at the bottom with stochastics primed for continuation of the uptrend for...

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Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to...

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Everywhere good news, inflation is dropping, the FED is about to pivot. Energy is dropping and every single technical indicator is telling us that we are in a "perfect bottom". Many argue that we are in a similar situation to 2015, at least the price action of the main indices. So let's discuss some arguments and figure this out. First and foremost, price...

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Spaaaaaaaaaaace! Let's make a quick party, also bring a cake to celebrate! Make it quick, because it's late and I am tired and I should be sleeping by now. We have reached the top of the world. Well, equities have. It is time for them to lose value big time. Their successor is here, bonds. I have talked about it extensively in my last idea. This is an urgent...

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I feel bad when I am filling up your feed with my non-stop posting. There are too many charts that I want to talk about. I could post them as "updates" to my earlier ideas. But this would be confusing for me and for the reader. Therefore, here is another short chart analysis. The last few months were peculiar. DJI began diverging away from the other main...

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As the famous billionaire said in December 2021 (elon), the "prophet" who is apparently loved and trusted by everyone. I don't know why... Disclaimer, SPX by itself will probably not follow this path, things are quite complex as you will soon find out. First of all, Recession is not something simple. Everyone talks about it, but it is not always meaningful. This...

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My recent posts were super bearish... well not this one. Imagine if you will, somehow, an impossible scenario. With nuclear war looming, food crisis and monetary tightening, something is triggered takes us to the moon, literally and metaphorically. One of them, which got quite popular (for a man my size), shows an imminent VIX explosion. Maybe the VIX explosion...

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Not all is black and white. Innumerable financial fundamentals point towards economic weakness. The thing is, nobody has managed to pinpoint when this will happen. The only thing I can do today is get some perspective on the cycles of SPX, and perhaps pinpoint the beginning/end of some of them. Maybe we are in the beginning of a new super-cycle! First things...

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The market has chosen a way to profit throughout all these years. This is the end of this way, QE lead us here... in this dead end. Equities was the "gold" of the time that passed. Now this is changing... If you read until the end of this idea, you will realize that a lot is changing. I will briefly analyze this chart and what it tells us. This is the ratio of...

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Just a short update for today. It is important, so it deserves an idea on its own. For the first time since 2019, the FED is now officially giving money into the system. What could this mean for the US economy? Are they sensing weakness or is this just a response to the recent banking crises? Now let's look at the history of bailouts. Price made a...

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Unemployment is tricky. You just cannot announce high unemployment. The political damage is too much to take. But unfortunately, the time comes when unemployment just increases... Every sane person would want the economy to remain calm for as long as possible. This is not sinister or bad. After all, it is in the duty of Governments and Central Banks to keep our...

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Spoiler alert: More evidence against NDQ in this idea! US Companies are organized in clusters, some of them are DJI, SPX, RUT, NDQ etc. Some of them are more trustworthy than others. And by that I mean which of these sets one can depend on. DJI is indeed a dependable group of companies, the so called Blue Chips. Composed of the 30 largest US Companies. These...

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You might not recognize this chart. To get some background on it, refer to the linked idea down below. You will find it in my profile. As it turns out,it looks like we are in a classic Wyckoff Distribution. It is remarkable that this is hidden beneath our noses. The timing and the accuracy of the future phases may not be completely correct, the path is...

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I have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful...

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The anxious moment when your investment goes through a period of slowdown or drop. When everything is good, everyone is happy. Nobody thinks twice when a market is growing. It's at that point of the first lower-low, when an investor loses their sleep. And it can be suffering when insomnia is prolonged. The 2022 Recession will be remembered as the most confusing...