akikostas

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SPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea. While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the...

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This is not the 2008 Recession. This is deception. This is the Recession nobody remembers. SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion. The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One...

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Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!! Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you! How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing,...

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In an unexpected turn of events, SPEU actually performs better than SPY in the years to come... RSI is now below it's SMA. Are we witnessing the top of the pair? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori

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Oil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar). World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both... US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared...

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Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind. This chart clears the picture. On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart. This chart tells us...

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Relative Strength Index, is one of the most famous indicators. If analyzed correctly it can show us warnings very early on. Look at this period between 2010-2014 for USOIL Price is supported by a very wide ribbon, while RSI is under significant resistance. When we are talking about such wide timeframes, RSI action is VERY important. One could say that RSI...

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...must come down. Conservation of Energy We all know QE... The god-given gift which made everyone rich! Well, not everyone... Consumers sure took a hit. But who cares about them? We want corporations rich! And they got rich . And boy some of them did go rich... That's the beauty of the American Dream! Sure we were cheating... ...but look at all this...

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I have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad? We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when...

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BTC supply is rarely calculated/used in charts. Since we analyze equities/idices divided by M2SL, we should divide BTC with it's supply. Since 2021, BTC supply increases by ~0.003% per week. At least according to the BTC_ADDRESSES ticker. While this may not analyze the true amount of BTC in circulation, it is at least a start... This process allows us to add a...

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Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose...

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We live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides...

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"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are...

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The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold...

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A very short idea. Make sure you got the scale right, one decimal away and you are ded. PS. The title is a reference to GTA:SA Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori

akikostas Updated 

Trapped between these very important retracements. They act as price magnets, and significant support/resistance levels. These were drawn with the magnet tool, so there is no bias towards their positions. Do note that we are analyzing the DXY*DJI chart, which shows us a clearer picture of recent price action. A closeup. Are we in UTAD? And another...

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The balance between SPX, NDX and DJI changes. Some are stronger than others. If we don't have food on our table and if there is no electricity or internet, who will go buy the new shiny faux bijou? Meta, Tesla and Google need internet to exist. If push comes to shove, they will be the first to drop. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori

akikostas

Don't mind me, I am just messing around... I did an experiment a while ago, which I now repeat as a standalone idea. The method is simple, draw some "meaningful" trendlines on RSI which contain 3 touches with RSI. The 3 points on which RSI touches the trendline, draw a curve on the price chart. You now have a beautiful chart. Some experienced traders/coders out...