akikostas

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Spoiler alert, there is a lot. Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously. An easy-to-explain chart. As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when...

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A while ago, I posted on why SPX was not in the clear. Today, I will cancel myself out, like a common contradictory human being you will find out in the wild. This chart above is the BTC rolled chart back in 2015. Back then, very few knew about it. So with this short idea, I will try to get into the mind of the trader in the past, our ancestor. First of all,...

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The history of the new world, reduced to its fundamentals. A simple channel and a few important events, define a Wyckoff Distribution. This chart is the DNA of the new world. The end of phase four would be the much-advertised-great-reset. The end of the past 120 years, and a beginning of a new era, if it is for the best or for the worst. I am not very hopeful...

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Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been...

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It may not be that simple... Now that inflation is in the headlines, I decided to "follow the herd" and post an idea regarding it. To compare the current financial market with the market 100 years ago, one may analyze the pairs DJI/CURRCIR, or DJI/ GOLD . From the chart is trivial to realize that DJI/ GOLD historically moves inside the blue channel. Historically...

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An updated view Pattern taken from reverse symmetry. Elliott Waves Stochastic RSI Oscillators The 12 Month oscillator pushes everything upwards. Since the 3M oscillator is at it's top, we expect a short drop until mid 2023. It will be short because of the effect of the 1M oscillator as well as the 12M one. Oscillators tell us that it is probable for price...

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It is actually a pair I decided to use, no reason behind it, just testing stuff. The behavior of VVIX*VIX is very similar to what happened in 2008. Is a crash coming or are they messing with our heads? Maybe they orchestrated it so similar to confuse us into thinking we are falling.

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I have posted many times regarding volatility, especially the VVIX&VIX relationship. There are times when mechanisms need to activate to stabilize the economy, the psychology, the society. Recessions, wars, pandemics are periods that may justify such actions. It is wise for an investor to understand pressures and their direction. The motto "Don't fight the FED"...

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Maybe this is a massive money supply flag. We have support on the ribbon. Stochastic RSI confirms it. I don't know if this even makes sense, since CURRCIR is a subset of M2SL. On the other hand, who would have thought that in 1990s currency in circulation would increase by 50% in less than a decade. Or is there a ceiling prohibiting more increase? Also look at...

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While we are talking about the Bitcoin fractal / logistic curve, I decided to analyze the second bubbly candidate, NDQ/NDX. The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000...

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World on terror in 2001, world on Russia in 2022. Sticky inflation, explosive dollar and a tech bubble. And a housing crisis brewing? Not a recipe for success. I don't understand why anyone would expect actual, long-term growth from this exact point. The chart above shows something peculiar. We have bearishly tried to escape the ribbon and failed (for now?). Also...

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Back in the 80s, we thought that by 2020 we would have an automated oven and flying cars. All we got is a money printer, and we liked it. We played with it a lot. And this year for Christmas, who wouldn't like some more printer ammo? Since high inflation cannot ensure social stability, we have only one option. Lower inflation. That is the motto of the FED, the...

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We are all familiar when a bear market starts. The fear instantly hits us, the cold sweat. We've all been there... To study bear markets and crashes, we need to study human psychology. Curiously, it is very predictable. This is your mind, my mind, everyone's mind. Either you go through depression, either through financial disaster, it is the same. I tried...

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I would like to do some qualitative analysis on VVIX/VIX, and it's behavior/effect on markets. We will try to pinpoint some "wave types". A. The most consistent/stable growth for SPX occurs in times of stable VIX and stable VVIX. Their ratio remains the same. B. At times of decreasing VIX and increasing VVIX, we have an unstable, impulsive upwards wave. This...

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In this rough draft of an idea, I naively try to figure out the effect of the immense money printing, and the "true" value of inflation. After BIS came out talking about the hidden debt, I began thinking about the "hidden" money. With such low money velocity, we cannot possibly feel the real effect of all that flood of money. I am amazed from this chart. Mainly...

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Oh yeah, inflation... Just how much though??? One of the main "benefactors" for inflation is money supply. Printing money fast and not managing it to create growth, is bad... unsurprisingly. For the last 2 years, an astronomical amount of money was printed. But have we seen it's effect? To figure out these HOT questions, we use charts. Opinions don't do us any...

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Shhhhhh! Can you hear it Look at BTC . Silence... Is it dead? It is almost certainly about to drop big time. Recent price action is not good... Low volume, price trapped inside the ribbon. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori

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2030, energy 5x more expensive than now. We might not be able to afford ze oil, but we will eat ze bugz. Pattern taken from 1995 to 2008. Today is June 5, 2001. The 7 year cycle is actually 2618 days. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori