akikostas

akikostas

Don't you have the question on why did Euro bounce off $0.95358, and not in some other weird ratio??? This chart explains it. A larger look on the chart. One could compare the ratio between EUM2 and M2SL to get an idea of the money supply ratio between the two "unions". Since I THINK that EUM2 is measured in supply of Euros, we should normalize the data....

akikostas Updated 

VIX is a measure of volatility. It takes the last 30 days of SPX, and measures it's variance. I would guess that VVIX does the exact same thing to VIX, it takes the recent 30 days of VIX, and measures it's variance. These two, along with SKEW are some of the methods investors calculate risk. I don't have the technical/financial knowledge on the ways investors can...

akikostas Updated 

There is not much explanation needed, every 7,7 years a recession happens. Curiously, if you expand the same chart to the past, it reaches the top of the Great Recession. So in March of 2023 we reach the top???? In 2015 we didn't have a crash. Maybe, just maybe, the 2023 crash will be a double-sized one. Since we still owe the 2015 capitulation.

akikostas

In an unexpected turn of events, SPX actually performs better than BTC in the years to come... The ratio is now successfully inside the ribbon. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori

akikostas

All that glitters is not gold. These are the main indices for the US economy. Don't trust them blindly. I am just repeating something I posted quite some time ago. You have two pockets, one full of USD, one full of stocks. As a trader you fill each one and empty the other one, when you feel that it is worth it. If half the money is in USD and half invested in...

akikostas Updated 

Apple IS the market. The peak of the market has a name and a shape, and the name is eyephone and the shape is apple. The recent crisis in stock market, didn't affect companies like Apple. They did not fall for the FED trap. It is not surprising though, since it is the apple month of September. And after the great reset they will be one of the survivors. PS. The...

akikostas Updated 

Ever wandered about how many BTC are in circulation? And how it's price would change if we took this into account? I searched a little if there is a ticker in here that tracks it but didn't bother. Instead I did the comparisons in Excel. The BTC price has many sides... Orange Line: Absolute BTC Price - Now $16,680 Blue Line: BTC divided by it's total supply -...

akikostas Updated 

This chart shows the periods with inverted 10y2y yields. Usually inversion doesn't lead to recession, like 2008. However the similarities with 2000 are striking. 3 Years ago we had a brief yield inversion, like in 1998. Then a second inversion occurred, bringing prices down with it. The same happens now. Half of the bubble burst occurred with yields inverted....

akikostas Updated 

It is like 1969, only exactly the same. (A quote Ashens would say) Sticky inflation begins Gold stagnating Cheap oil, and then not that cheap Space exploration And the following years after 1969, look what happened to: Inflation: Remained for 10 years Gold: After a disappointing drop in 1969-1970, it exploded 19x until 1979. Oil: Increased 10x until 1980 Space:...

akikostas

The product of SPX times DXY shows something incredibly interesting. A probable scenario for the following months is this: DXY has shown the last days some small signs of stagnation, but its future looks very optimistic. Sure we may have periods of price staying the same, but the train cannot change direction. SPX and the other main US indices, may follow the...

akikostas Updated 

SPX has clearly violated a trend line of this Renko chart. After a false-breakout of the channel, now we progress further downwards. This chart may suggest that even though we have had consistent growth for the last years, every time we cover less and less ground upwards. The next leg up, may lead us to the bottom of the channel and a rejection. Only then we can...

akikostas Updated 

The DXY normalization is far too good. Make good use of it, and make improvements on it, as you must. The accuracy, in even such long timeframes, is incredible. For the retracements, the magnet tool was used, and the retracement is in fib scale. Therefore nothing was placed by chance. Also look at the short-term accuracy. Look at the standard SPGSCI. It is...

akikostas Updated 

As someone who works in industry with large consumption of diesel fuel, we are very concerned and interested in fuel. This past few weeks while gasoline is dropping, diesel fuel is in a price similar to the beginning of Ukraine war. So when will prices go back to "normal"? As you can see in the included image, relative price between gasoline and diesel is very...

akikostas Updated 

RB1! by itself doesn't like to follow retracements. That is because it is not normalized with dollar strength. After all, gasoline consumption is highly affected by the strength of the average salary. Also take a look at where we landed. Crude and its products show strength during the last weeks. The point we are testing is not a random point, as the standard RB1!...

akikostas Updated 

I have stated in previous ideas that stonks vs commodities are gonna lose big time. And this is more clearly observed comparing the main indices with something of value (like silver) to compare this century with the last one. Silver is used because gold used to have a relationship with USD. Now we normalize RB1! by multiplying it with DXY. This calculates the...

akikostas

Now we are in a thick moving sand. We need to drop much further to find solid land. A way of looking at the clouds is as if they are mud. We are dropping as if we are very big, heavy and slow. I have drawn some possible support levels. The upper 3 are taken from the DJI/M2SL ratio, and the bottom one is taken after we scale appropriately the GFC. We need to mind...

akikostas Updated 

It's traps all the way down. And each one larger than the last one. Maybe one even larger is coming, who knows? Only the hunter knows, who is setting traps to take your money. And that hunter is big tech or whoever is rich enough to set them up. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori

akikostas

The anatomy of these two bodies are identical. The murderer the same. The "plateau" that was shaped in 2004-2006, is identical to 2018-2020 The chopped off head exactly the same. Traders in 2008 had no clue (?) what would happen. (I doubt it, many knew very well what was happening) Now that we have a direct counterpart, and a not so distant one, comes the...