We launched from the demand zone and encountered a weak supplyzone right above. I don't expect BTC to drop back into the demand zone, only to retrace to it as we see now. 3700 is the new bottom.
probability calculation:
Strength of move = 2/2
RR = 1/2
big picture = 1/2
retrace = 2/2
placement = 1/1
time at zone = 1/1
arrival = 1/1
adding up scores = 9, if less...
1. 4 hour RSI was oversold.
2. if we draw a line from the 2 points where the RSI were previously oversold, we can see a trend continuation.
3. Target is the next resistance point, found by drawing a horizontal line.
Large picture:
waves 1,2 and 3 of the elliot wave impulse wave is complete.
Small picture:
Descending triangle is forming in the short term.
It is that simple.
Strategy:
Enter trade at the top of the decending triangle.
Target previous support at the fib line. That zone is a fresh supply zone that has only been touched twice so chances are good that it will...
