Nasdaq is holding onto its channel and looks prime for a bounce soon to the top of the channel. SPY on the other hand has broken its channel but conditions still remain oversold. SPY can go down a little from here but, it will look to retest the broken trend line. The Chart of SPY from 2020 is quite scary. There are so many GAPS. Gaps occur when there is such...
IWM - 2000 small-cap domestic stocks SPY - 500 of the largest cap U.S. stocks Why do these two charts look so different? Money Flows. SPY is a Broad-Based Index. Money flows into SPY through 401Ks, pensions, investments, etc. There is a lot of "passive" income. This is akin to the bond market. The government buys over a trillion in bonds each year. Keeping...
XLP - Consumer Staples are up 40% from their covid low, SPY is up over 90% since April 2020. A bottom in XLP/SPY has always signaled a larger degree market correction. Investors rush into XLP as a flight to safety. The ratio XLP/SPY looks like its chugging down still and have followed in the weakness of defensive stocks these past weeks. WAKE ME UP WHEN XLP...
TLT/HYG - RiskOff vs. RiskOn: Tells you how risky investors/lenders are... The Chart presented maps the performance of TLT (risk off) vs. HYG (risk on). It is evident that there is currently a risk off move occurring in the markets. When TLT outperforms HYG, this is bearish for equites. On the chart, I inputted vertical lines on the periods where TLT outperforms...
Semiconductors have been rangebound since rates increased in January. Tech and in particular semis lead the market due to it being capital intensive. Rates have started to lower but semis cannot breakout. Long consolidation patterns usually end with an impulsive move to the top or the bottom. The way semis move will dictate broader markets.
1. Gold Historically, Gold and Silver crashes weeks before market crashes. This is because of a big rise in the dollar. Silver is heading to 25 and Gold to 1675. Snapshot of 2008: Snapshot of 2000: 2. DXY and Inverted SPY DXY looks bullish and heading to 95 then 100? On Jan 7th 21 we saw the dollar stopped going down and stocks continued to go up. In...
Transportation ETFs with exposure to U.S. airline, railroad, and trucking companies indicates the flow of goods across the world. When this etf preforms well it signals that people are ordering packages, tourists are traveling, supermarkets are buying food, industrial companies are receiving building materials, consumers are receiving electronics and equipment,...
1. Commodity Currencies Australia, Canada, and New Zealand all have commodities that fluctuate with respect to commodity prices. As demand for these countries' export has risen and commodities have increased in value, these three currencies have appreciated. As the dollar depreciates, commodities become cheaper. A. Aussie Dollar Australia is a major...
If bitcoin breaks up above 4100. Bull market. 90K? If bitcoin breaks below 30490. Bear market. 11K? Best to wait and see which direction it chooses to break out in. Bitcoin is stuck between support and resistance. Buying at this area is no man's land. More frequent posts coming...
When Markets are up those you missed out or sold out wait for a pullback to enter. However, when the market presents a pullback; some people find it hard to pull the trigger because the narrative has changed. The only constant thing in the markets is that investors are fickle and ever changing with their opinion. Investors tend to extrapolate the present somehow...
Chinese stocks are entering a bear market. China's holdings are very tech-heavy and mostly internet-based. ex. Alibaba, Tencent, JD, Baidu, Weibo, IQIYI. The Chinese government has concerns over the power these large corporations can wield on their citizens leading to increased regulation. Likewise, the US Government has been closely watching their own tech giants...
When investing in US Treasury Bonds you are guaranteed money in the form of yield. However, if an investor is looking to take on the opportunity cost of carrying a yieldless asset; there is no guaranteed payment. Profit is only realized by an increase in value during the carrying period. When investing in yieldless assets you want to make sure that the...
GDX is showing both bullish and bearish price action. GDX reversed off of the 0.5 retracement level from the impulse move up from March 20 to August 20. A reversal at the 0.5 is considered bullish and a buying opportunity. However, I believe there is clearer evidence of a bearish move. A head and shoulders pattern formed in white. GDX looks to of formed a...
"One ratio to bring them all and in the darkness bind them" The ratio of Lumber to Gold is arguably one of the most important ratios in the market. Of the 20 or so ratios I keep tabs. This ratio contains a plethora of useful information. It dictates many funds investment decisions, functions as an input in Algos and is a great indicator of the markets...
Quick update. Markets have been oscillating in limbo lately. Trading yields the best results in markets that are trending especially if you intend on using leverage. Bulls are trying to make a move to previous highs. They were able to hold the 50% retracement from the September lows to the February highs. Also, QQQ has been in a channel since June and has...
This month is an incredibly crucial week for TLT and can be a telling signal about the overall market. Fundamental Analysis: TLT is approaching the highs it made in August 2019. If TLT is considered a proxy for "risk-off" behavior. Do you think our economic landscape is as, "risk-off" as it was in August 2019? Short Duration Treasury Bills are approaching...
Business Cycles are usually categorized into 3 distinct phases: Early Cycle (Recovery/Expansion), Middle/Late Cycle (Peak) and Recession (Contraction). Predicting recessions and expansions is difficult due to the irregularities present in the business cycle. Background on Business/Debt Cycles: In general, the business cycle is governed by Keynes' idea of...
all them other lame and u know it now,