bageltokki

bageltokki Updated 

was waiting to do something with FDX, but wanted ER to blow over first. looks like a good short candidate. 2 possible bearish order blocks. first one got touched march 1 and fdx closed below. also touched fib level. 2nd possible order block entered marc 17 20 and 22 (today). also bearish divergence bar forming on daily. see if it closes today and completes the...

bageltokki Updated 

noted march 15th (after FOMC?) that NDX made new highs but SPX and DJIA didn't. shorted QQQ by selling 132.5/133.5 call spreads on march 16. will close when i see divergence again. also shorted MSFT as MSFT was failing to make higher highs while NDX was. my assumption is that SPX/DJI will finish their ABC correction and start a 5 wave impulse. the end of wave...

bageltokki

shorted MSFT March 16, sold 65/67.5 spread puts. the sudden jump this morning worried me but within a few hours it mostly likely proved to be a stop run (on NFLX & QQQ as well) Saw indices diverge (SPX and DJI made lower highs but NDX made higher highs), identified 2 stocks in nasdaq 100 that were divergent to NDX (BIIB and MSFT) on March 15th after...

bageltokki

Just for tracking/study purposes TWLO long? triple bottom?

bageltokki Updated 

lets see if abandoned baby plays out (First time seeing it ever) looks like it may be a simple ABC correction, both highs were divergent bars. popped up monday to enter the bearish order block and open below today.

bageltokki

aapl 5 wave almost over? hit the top of the elliot wave channel (connect wave 2 to 4 and make a channel with top of 3), just need to wait for time to play out, shorting apple soon, but will wait till feb 15th to confirm. aapl has divergence on weekly, daily, 2 day, daily. divergent as heck

bageltokki

been shorting nat gas from 3.8s expecting a retracement, but recent developments have me confused. could this possible be a reversal and we just finished a contracting flat wave 2?

bageltokki

ties in with DXY post. waiting to see USDCAD retrace up to either of those two zones. prefer to see reversal at 1.337 to 1.347 zone. won't be opening any trades unless DXY is in either of the short zones listed in the other idea.

bageltokki

Just taking notes and tracking my thoughts. possible move for DXY to retrace up to 102.95 and run those stops on the fractal high, coincides with a bearish order block, but that may take us north of the alligator, another possible move would be to retrace up and run stops at 101.74 fractal before continuing down. i seem to prefer this as that would still keep us...

bageltokki Updated 

will be adding longs on AUDNZD, looks like 5 wave down completed in 2016 and currently in corrective ABC. 5 wave satisfies AO count, divergence, and MFI squat. wave 2 of wave c is almost over, looking to identify 5 wave completion on 30 minute TF on wave c of 2 of c

bageltokki

Miners finished a nice 5 wave move from 37s to 43s and are currently on a 3 wave pullback. wave a was complete with a 5 wave structure so we should be expecting a 5-3-5 pullback. wave b currently being completed with hopefully a retest of trump election highs and possibly to 42s. Will try to grab a long position in JNUG if presented the opportunity. if not, will...

bageltokki

trying to see if similar pattern in June will play out currently 4 hr has bull div, daily has bear div building

bageltokki

grabbed some VRX 25 calls Monday for Oct 21 for an ER play. cost basis abt 1.20 / contract daily bull divergence and wave count seems to fit, bounced off a fib. targeting for approx 30-ish if this is indeed wave 5 starting

bageltokki

possible long from 22 GDX. possible wave 2 completion? Theres a A-B-C looking pattern that would give us 100% extension at 22.00 GDX. That lines up with 50% fib from 12s low to 30s high. also weekly ichi cloud support. soo... looks like bull divergence? on AO AC and stoch. prolly not gonna do options with this trade.. just NUGT and hold.

bageltokki

Took a quick look at SPX again tonight after not trading it for a few weeks... looks like we might be in a wave 2 pullback (triangle) for the wave 3 of wave 5 (brexit wave 5). wave 4 of brexit ending in 2107s. if we break that red channel below then we will prolly see 2090s. but that would also ruin the whole count from Brexit as wave 4 would encroach into...

bageltokki Updated 

Started long position today at approx 43.65 USOIL. hope this fib holds, but personally feel that it won't (even though I'm already long!) Other possible strong support for a reversal back up I see is 41.7ish area. 1. its a fib retrace from the 40 - 49 upmove 2. It would complete a 3 wave A-B-C correction where A=C. This correction started at 49 3. It was a prior...

bageltokki

looks like we just completed wave 1 of wave 3 of wave 5. expecting a pullback to 50% of 61.8% fib. Bear divergence on hourly & 4 hour. (this chart is hourly but 4 hr shows same divergence) Not shorting, will start preparing to enter longs when AO and stoch RSI indicate an upcurve. prolly start position at 50% and add more down to 61.8% fib.

bageltokki Updated 

long USOil still from last post at 43s. wave 4 was complete with a A-B-C zig-zag 3-3-5. unfortunately if we do wave 1 = wave 5... we won't go past 47s. will take profit there to be safe. will have to zoom out and look at bigger picture to see where we really are.