bitofamacroman

bitofamacroman Updated 

Gold is at the lower bound of a range calculated with price volume and volatility and its trend remains bullish. Additionally, there appears to be a wave pattern forming.

bitofamacroman Updated 

10 yr off, the economy slowing, real rates will decline, and gold should follow its inverse correlation. At the current levels a nice chart pattern forming, and we are at the lower bound of a daily range calculated with price volume and volatility. Low risk with SL below recent low if you are worried.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Same economic considerations, deflation, dollar up. SL determined by RR after entry, we are giving it room, its not a day trade.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Broadly commodities are backing off their highs, Oil and Grains were the lone hold out's. Corn is near the top of a volatility adjusted daily risk range and a chart pattern is forming. We are taking a stab at it here.

bitofamacroman Updated 

To go along with NAS100 short TSLA pushing top end of a range, taking a shot on the short side here with a SL above 1060.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Shorting it again, SL above prior high, call it 20 even. This is a fundamental as well as technical trade. Dollar strengthening, commodities making the turn, growth slowing, rate of inflation will slow as well.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Deflationary pressures and fed that will be lucky to get in any more hikes and may need to reverse as they cannot raise rates into falling GDP, slowing growth and commodity prices ( Oil , Wheat , Corn the exceptions) across the board under pressure. Oh yes, then there is the chart pattern and multiple time periods all look bullish . As real rates decline 10yr...

bitofamacroman Updated 

We may get a March CPI print that is slightly higher, but that should be the end of it based on commodity prices and projected GDP going into Q2. SL is 760 or thereabouts based on your risk tolerence.

bitofamacroman Updated 

We remain in deflation (except for oil so far). That means a rising dollar. We are well above the high-end of the daily range based on price volume and volatility and should look for a reversal. The pattern is setting up, the fundamentals have not changed. We will scale in here and manage the trade.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Top end of a daily range calculation, pattern on lower time frame emerging, bear market so opening only from short side into bear rallies. Playing a SL with some room to breathe intraday.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Dollar up, stocks down, gold up, commodities making the turn, growth sequentially slowing and expected to slow further through Q2, deflation ahead in commodities, but oil remains a problem meanwhile the fed is hiking into slowing growth, we are in for a wild ride in Q2 while interest rates rise. In any case, want to remain long dollars, long gold, short most...

bitofamacroman Updated 

Probably should have had this in earlier today around 1910, but I am buying it here at 1932 to ADD to an existing position. I put a SL in on this particular portion of the position below the low. Macro view is the same and has not changed. Q2 could be devastating and gold should perform well in this emerging environment.

bitofamacroman Updated 

This is a temporary trade against my own better judgment in a bear market buying a falling knife. My overall macro approach is that the dollar should continue to perform in Q2 and maybe the Euro will in my opinion see par or worse. In any case, there is a technical approach that justifies a small trade here with some room for error and adding some.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Buying to cover but not all, only a portion. Please see related trade.

bitofamacroman

Bought a little bit 141, a little more at 137 and am loading to max size in this position now. Everything in increments. Reason is same as previously stated for this security and position. Inflation peaks and in Q2 we will have a continued slowdown in growth and inflation. CPI is peking. Then there is the larger time frame chart pattern that we like.

bitofamacroman Updated 

We bought some earlier near 141 were buying some more here. Chart is setting up for a nice move higher but more importantly the macro tells us growth is slowing, in spite of rate hikes (6+) priced in, the fed will realize raising rates as growth slows would be disastrous and we will probably not get more than 2 and the inflation peak in commodity prices is likely...

bitofamacroman Updated 

The prevailing opinion is for inflation and Fed rate hikes. The data signals something else. If the Fed begins tightening into an economy whose commodity prices have already peaked and are headed down and into what will be a slowing GDP there will be trouble. Either way we have a nice pattern forming on the chart and IMO inflation peak is in, with the exception...

bitofamacroman Updated 

Oil peaking (it appears to be, we shall see) along with inflation, should weigh on the cad. In addition to that lower bound of a channel and lower bound of calculated risk range, lower timeframe patterns forming.