capri123

capri123

- BIZD looks like a descending triangle and HYG is in down channel - a bounce is possible but the long term pattern is not bullish

capri123

- Bull has to defense here to continue upmove toward channel top

capri123

- 2 multi year trendline act as resistance around 2750ish - momentum still strong and it takes time for the top formation. ( at least for RSI divergence ? ) - new ATH in 2018 and top in Q3Q4?

capri123

- The big wedge still act as resistance and might see higher high but unless 2007 repeat we might see a top in formation

capri123

wait for confirmed break up or break down ... will be huge for 2018 either way

capri123 Updated 

-riding up the channel and price rejected at channel top 302ish -Cash gap in 2007 top at 309-313, future has already filled the gap due to fat finger - it becomes a mystery if cash price will fill the gap in future - however, need to see more bar to confirm bearish, a double top/lower high will be a tradable short

capri123 Updated 

-Market want low rate ~ crash the market & money rush into bond ... so to keep rate low enough to keep the bubble .. that's the play if past 7 years - will the scheme change in coming future? only low rate can keep the bubble ~ not superinflation coz debt will burst ?

capri123

post 2004 we can see the divergence will be closed out eventually and now the divergence goes like 2000 1 reason is foreign buying Japanese equity so currency go strong + heading currency risk by going long UJ that's why COT spec is huge?

capri123

Huge divergence btw UJ and Nikkei ~ either UJ or Nikkei is too strong ... one have to give

capri123

- trust this wedge can last till the whole 2018 - the dip is getting shallow and prepared for a breakout

capri123

-Monthly RSI is ultra hot exceeding 07/08 top - could draw 2 wedge , 1 is leading to mega bubble and next pullback is a good buy. Another 1 is like 07/08 top formation. what do you think ? -

capri123

- yes everyone says we are in bubble .. just try to illustrate what a bubble should look like ~ we are no way near a bubble top - if price stall here it is way too rational

capri123

- SPX monthly mega wedge showing price can go as high as 3000+ - pullback to the TL will be a good buy opportunity - pls be reminded it is a monthly chart, not indicating any short term movement

capri123

- price met 0.5 fib pullback, next stop is 0.618 which is around double bottom target.

capri123

Triangle break .. pullback breakout point sooner later then epic move ? 14x PE vs US 25x PE ... why ? becoz Shanghai A share is too weak ... tightening in China ~ so it is the black swan !

capri123

is it a H&S pattern ? monster move to go ! super inflation coming ?

capri123

yes the ECB created the monster ... if 2007 repeat we will double up here .. same wedge formation like in 2007 !! why possible ? super inflation like Venezuela ... Will the central bank stop the train ?

capri123

Shagnhai Composite: sooner or later will breakdown here