chessnut

chessnut

BTCCNY has made a run for it, briefly breaking out of the grand log down trend but is now consolidating below. The form of the drop is clearly corrective, suggesting that there is more to come in any case. The drop could be a iv, ii or x wave. Following the drop a five wave form has risen and corrected to 70%, typical of a primary wave correction. Since this is...

chessnut

This is an excellent example of an impulse in the GBPUSD. The form is textbook, the third wave is extended, typical of the third wave. Wave iv has bottomed in the vicinity of the previous wave (iv), and we can see two fractals deep into the system. wave IV is a clear corrective abc, so RR is very well defined and the reward is generous. Looking at the bigger...

chessnut

The triangle in the EURUSD thrusted toward 1.14 last week, potentially completing the move. However, the thrust retraced in the form of an abc to exactly 61.8% of the rally, tyrpical of a primary wave. This morning the EU is bullish. Plausibly, this can only mean that we are about to start a third wave rally. A channel target for the greater ABC fits excellently...

chessnut

This is a chart of the correction in the USDJPY since the 2008 disaster. There are two good counts for this, an abc as described OR an impulse with a iii and v wave extension. The last impulse in junction with the last triangle (interestingly similar the the prior) is compound evidence that we are at a major top on the daily, bound to retrace to retrace to 118 at...

chessnut

This is an isolated EW pattern in the AUDUSD. The larger picture is messy at best, but this abc is most likely part of a complex correction that will eventually surrender to the down trend. As a strong guideline, abs's correct by 62%, the golden ratio. It could go much further.

chessnut

EURUSD has had a big rally from lows. Beginning with an abc it was corrective from the start, implying wave IV and an unresolved wave V. a clear termination of a 3-3-5 correction failed to produce a five wave structure, instead producing the X of what is so far a complex double zigzag. Set to top characteristically in the larger wave iv decline this thrust from a...

chessnut

The USDJPY has topped on an extremely bullish NFP report sending the pair to new extremes of price and sentiment. This was a wave V advance, and the dumps immediately after the complacent buying have more than retraced the gains. This is a primary wave of a new bearish cycle, the third wave may take us below $120.

chessnut

This is an update on my last triangle count published for EURUSD, wave (e) formed at a later stage and the form has only improved. This aligns with a major USD news event, the FOMC which is set to rally the EU. This is a long opportunity but will evolve into an even better short from 1.155 area

chessnut

This running triangle has good internals and is consistent with the larger wave IV triple or double zig-zag that I published earlier. This could be a fine long opportunity if we build a short term base here. The thrust could be sharp as is characteristic of a triangle thrust. As triangles are terminal moves evidence of a triangle here could mean a sure fire short at 1.15

chessnut

The EU has carved out a complex correction from lows, being either a double zigzag or triple zigzag at this point. Wave Z (or X) which is by nature an ABC is at this point in wave C which is likely to top around 1.15 This will complete a crystal clear wave IV correction before wave V of the larger impulse takes us toward parity.

chessnut

The USDJPY is approaching a potential long term top with a clear impulsive thrust. A rally from this point from this triangle is a very nice short term long and long term short opportunity.

chessnut

Greece is threatening default, it has been declared that there is no money to make the IMF payment and negotiations are going bad. This is a clear triangle count that should should be wave iv of an impulse down in Bund. It is consistent with the risk of default and Bund ratings that are fragile at the this point in time. Sell the Bund on the breakdown!

chessnut

The third clean count of an EW triangle i have posted today. There should be some swift moves ahead for the mid week session.

chessnut

I recently published a USDZAR chart but with such high margin on the USDZAR it had me looking for a better USD long opportunity. The USDJPY is a great triangle count.

chessnut

This is an exceptionally clear EW triangle formation. The USRZAR should be set to rally to new highs alligned with bullish DXY counts.

chessnut

USOIL has topped what is likely to be wave iv of a rather large correction from lows. A clearly formed primary wave guides us to wait for a 50% correction before this thing tanks again.

chessnut

The EURAUD is ready to soar as we have a clean count of a wave II correction. As wave c is an ending diagonal watch out for a really sharp hike to the base, 1.435.

chessnut

The AUDUSD has been correcting sideways for some time, forming a bearish expanding triangle wave IV. Now with the DXY turning bullish, clarified by the EURUSD, and with AUD news events turning the AUD down at the time of writing, I am convinced we are at the beginning of a swift third wave that could take the AUD as low as 0.7 to the USD.