chrisbrecher

chrisbrecher

Bitcoin went to my first area of support around 38000. It could overshoot to 36000 temporarily and be real oversold, but longer term the 32,000 - 31,000 zone is the big support.,

chrisbrecher

Many software/service stocks are getting takeover interest. ZM has a big market cap compared to SPLK, but almost where it was when the pandemic started.

chrisbrecher

Usually, bottoms in equity markets are when the 200 weekly SMA is touched. But the weekly MACD is already oversold. t could take weeks for the MACD to "recycle" and get back to overbought, so there is enough "ammunition" for the next leg down.

chrisbrecher

Bond sell-offs didn't seem to matter to the SPX until buybacks ended.

chrisbrecher

Most companies with huge buybacks voluntarily stop buying back stock 35 days prior to earnings. Usually, AAPL's earnings are the unofficial end of the S&P blackout. When buybacks resume, usually the S&P and AAPL rally for a few weeks. But this time, the Fed isn't at the market's back.

chrisbrecher

I am always looking for "thin zones", which call "airholes". Those are areas of little support or resistance. AAPL has an "airhole" to 168.

chrisbrecher

AAPL closed yesterday right at hourly and 15 minute support. If /ZB sells off, then I think the /NQ sells off. That will drag AAPL under support. Then 168 is possible, or lower.

chrisbrecher

If the long bond breaks tomorrow, there is little support until 148. That also coincides with the monthly trendline.

chrisbrecher

With the NQ drooping back to the 200 SMA, usually, the ES follows. That would bring the ES down to 4400.

chrisbrecher

A break under 153'11 on the /ZB could cause a "mini-crash" to 148. As seen on the left chart, there is a daily lack of support until 148.

chrisbrecher

I am showing the resistance "zones" for the hourly /ES. But the 4 hour /ES is already really overbought. It has been reliable for buy and sell signals lately.

chrisbrecher

Using a "naked chart", only showing prices, /ES is near prior bottoms and tops.

chrisbrecher

The more horizontal the trendline, and the more touches of price to that trendline, the more ominous. Many times, a decisive break of the line, leads to a move equal to the previous range. That would be over 3000 points!

chrisbrecher

I try to make chart reading as simple as possible. I look for "airholes", where there is little resistance or support. The arrows show the objective after "airholes" finally meet some support.

chrisbrecher

The RUT futures had been in a rectangle, for months. The width is around 222 points. To me, the first objective is the width of the rectangle from the breakdown. That would measure to under 1900.

chrisbrecher

The /NKD is close to breaking down, but bouncing at the moment. Now overbought on an hourly MACD, with NO positive divergence. If it fails at resistance, I think U.S. markets will test the lows.

chrisbrecher

The /ES better hold this important trendline, of it could go down to 4440. Companies voluntarily stop buying back their stock 35 days prior to earnings. That does not mean markets automatically go down. It means that bearish patterns are MORE LIKELY to work.

chrisbrecher

For years, interest rates have been so low, that investors have no alternative but to pile into stocks. This is going to change if /ZB breaks the trendline. I go on probabilities. The likelihood that the trendline on the right sees a breakdown goes up dramatically if the bonds break down.