christian.langfors

christian.langfors

In a crazy market, expect crazy price patterns, right? I'd say in a "normal market condition", the most likely outcome would be to see a higher high after this sharp "V-move" upwards starting as of late yesterday evening. However, we have seen these V-moves previously during the last ~2months and the outcome has been a mixed result. Right now, I'd say the...

christian.langfors

Based on the 30min chart, there is a possible bull flag building with a target close to 11k (within ~2 weeks)

christian.langfors

Predicting the future is not only impossible but arguably also meaningless to some extent. However, in this "game" I think it is good to have some kind of a vision where we could go in the near future. With that being said, we must always approach the market with an open mind, ready to change your mind if it doesn't play out like first expected. Mr. Market...

christian.langfors Updated 

DAX 4H chart, although the "trend" measured with MA20 on the 4H chart is pointing north, I'd say the probability for the sell off yesterday to continue today/monday is quite high. In other words, expecting a 1-2-3 move lower. Why is a good question, since the other events (marked with a blue-ish arrow) was all BTFD. I have no good arguments for "why" besides I do...

christian.langfors

Some levels to keep in mind for coming week, based on historical performance

christian.langfors

Some levels based on historical performance to keep in mind coming week

christian.langfors Updated 

DAX shorter term charts (2h in this case), might provide us with a negative RSI(14) divergence. RSI(14) should climb over ~77 in this up leg to get rid of the negative divergence. Possible but not likely. Divergences is not the holy grail to marking tops nor bottoms, but success rate has been quite good the lately. The short term historical pattern for RSI...

christian.langfors

Two things that are interesting: 1) Short interest is rising (trending north slightly since beginning of 3.2016) 2) Mega short interest spikes doesn't guarantee that Apple turns south in the near future (see 4.2014, assuming that short interest data set is correct that is...)

christian.langfors Updated 

SPX testing bottom of channel right now. Volume is less than previous two days, showing less interest in prices at this level. We might be close to a corrective pullback..

christian.langfors

DAX has been climbing the ladder of worries now for the past weeks. The momentum is strong in this move, look at the high RSI and the price action. A high RSI has only resulted in an modest pull back or consolidation and then new short term highs. Likely we'll see something similar soon (~tomorrow), where DAX consolidates or provides a small pullback perhaps to low ~9K.

christian.langfors

Might get interesting on the down side if this pattern comes into play.

christian.langfors

This is my short term DAX price action guesstimate. RESISTANCE: 9330 & 9400 SUPPORT: 9200 9200 is quite obviously a super important support level for the short term! It might also hold if rebounds are not only short cover bounces but actually investors being bullish and loading up longs. IF however, the bounce is only or mostly short covers, we are SOL (Shit Out...

christian.langfors

Rebound muuuch stronger than I'd expected, therefore not sure at all about the next price pattern guesstimate. I'm 100% sure there will be an correction but the million dollar question is when and how far up will we go before corrective wave down starts? My current estimate is max 10 200 but it is always super tricky to call tops IMHO. However, we have the...

christian.langfors

Two possible long setup targets for DAX. PLS NOTE! This market is still spooked and DAX / stock market can still turn down sharply with or without any specific reason! Finding and setting reasonable stop/loss orders will be tricky, whip-saw risk is big with "normal s/l rules". I've no fixed S/L set, only based on gut feeling, trading very small position size.

christian.langfors Updated 

Small speculative long position opened...

christian.langfors

The little longer term DAX outlook, as I see it, is more down. Based on the price action only, I would say this is still the first leg down in a bigger move down. I'm expecting a "relief" rally (or short covers, call it what you want) to approx. ~9 700 and then more down (current estimate below 9k based on current chart pattern). But time will tell and only mr....

christian.langfors

DAX RSI(14) is getting low on the 1h chart: 1) Good odds for somekind of a rebound during the next ~8 trading hours 2) Should see another leg down (depending on the rebound strength)

christian.langfors

Quite good odds for another leg down this week. However, the leg down "should" start before this Wednesday or up-we-go (read: bears are week & buyers just waiting..). Note also, 10 080 is good and super important support. If 10 080 breaks down, look for a smallish rebound around 10k and then target ~9 750 / 9 800. I'm neutral at the moment but looking to get in...