codypd

codypd Updated 

May take 2 weeks to resolve. Range held this morning. RSI divergence should have sent price higher out of range. The fact it didn't and an inverted hammer was the top on the 1hr chart shows underlying weakness.

codypd

Chart explains itself.

codypd

This chart speaks for itself. If you don't know candles, this would be a good time to learn them

codypd

Contango rate channel displayed for UVXY. Multiply your VIX projections against the numbers for April and May expirations and you should have a range that UVXY will hit on those days. Useful for knowing when to get out of UVXY options do avoid steep theta losses. Bottom indicator shows VIX needs a sustained move above 20 at this point to get out of this...

codypd

Because USO is a roll trade ETF you get a smoothed price without the rollover spike/drops you see in WTI. Look at the head and shoulders it has formed, Price target of 8.50 EDIT: Also note the falling RSI for the three peaks.

codypd

Multiple resistance lines now as the rally pitchfork from Feb 11 has held very nicely.

codypd

See chart. red upper line from nov/dec highs. Lower line touches lows during US trading session. Could reverse at 2011 (a fib line from dec high to Feb 11 low) and turn into inverted H&S .

codypd

See notes on chart. Works for those who don't have time to watch volatility intraday. Doesn't require tracking contango / backwardation. *edit: prices based on close price of SVXY on the day of the Kagi transition.

codypd

See chart. Bears really need to move things down on the indexes or contango will return to rolling volatility plays. See notes on chart. * note: looks like TradingView, in its wisdom, is now resizing indicators from how publishers intended them to be zoomed. Will follow up with another graphic later.

codypd

For the last several years US equities have benefited from a liquidity flood that caused a commodity bull. The oil boom / bust is a good example, and you can see from their recent change in correlation, we may be seeing the last weeks of those two assets moving roughly in tandem . The last time the correlation movement was this unstable was 2008/2009 - when...

codypd

Needs a catalyst but the last few sessions have yet to erase the habits of the last few years. Needs a catalyst - the record sized "Yes" rally in Athens today may set into motion a greater likelihood of a Yes vote and the resignation of the Tsipras government. Support, however can give way easily with the VIX north of 16.

codypd

A point of reference for my prior post.

codypd

Chart shows my "Market Freakout Indicator" which is a daily-only indicator. (Edit: here is what 2007 looked like -> ) I built it months ago to detect complacency conditions for a crash / correction. IMO, these months of sideways grind have reset expectations and positioning such that very few people are living in the frothy euphoria that precedes big falls. ...

codypd

Notes and daily projections for multiples through July opex posted on chart.

codypd

Please see my other posts on VIX, VXV, etc for my current outlook on volaitility (net: it should rise soon). That said, this channel is intact and will be until it isn't. It has paid me well so last week I bought $40 UVXY puts for July 17 expiry. I expect VIX to post at 14.20ish then so UVXY should trade in the 29.67 to 25.70 range that week. Calcs are easy:...

codypd

Volatility traders over the last weeks have been seeing a "flattening" of volatility structure and have not been getting the returns they were expecting for contango trades. (If you want to see contango at work, pull up a 5 year chart of UVXY. Those losses? Contango.) These charts show what is happening. The VIX (short term volatility) is rising from its...

codypd

When looking at the % of S&P100 stocks above their 200 day average on a monthly basis, you could see 2008 coming. Sustained price momentum decay led that % to under 45% before the S&P500 started taking on serious losses. That channel is to the left in green on this chart. Shift your eyes right and notice the green channel we are in now. I drew that channel...

codypd

Notes on chart