Highly likely the bottom is in. Looks Good from Here. $30 is in the cards by year end.
Essentially, this is the same chart I published more than a month ago. I don't see any major modification is needed at this point. As I have warned in my comment on my last chart, $53 is a price level to watch since it's a mid point to the $58 target. Now, this retrace should complete at $51.50, $50 or $48, with $51.50 being the most likely inflection level in...
If Geo Risks calms down a little next week, then this is a likely path of SPX500 for the next few weeks. This is similar to the chart I published on 3/28 but with slightly more bullish near term view and more details.
$1170 - $1270 is the most likely trading range.
Don't know what happened to my last post but here is the re-post. Revised the count. USOIL is still following the path as outlined in my previous posts so no big change is needed. USOIL won't stop the slide until seeing at least $48.28. On the other hand, I double this correction will be too deep (below $44) though.
My prediction of 2017: OIL Will Be More Valuable Comparing to Gold in most of 2017
IMHO, SPX500 is very unlikely to go any higher until at least visiting the 2240-2250 range once.
Wait for catalyst to sell. In a couple of weeks it's gonna fall hard... A decent correction is needed and healthy at this point.
Revised the count. USOIL is still following the path as outlined in my previous posts so no big change is needed. USOIL won't stop the slide until seeing at least $48.28. On the other hand, I double this correction will be too deep (below $44) though.
The range-bound oil may break very soon, I think within 1-2 weeks. I rate the probability about 80%. Since oil and SPX500 have good correlation for the past 10+ months, SPX500 will likely have a small correction too.
I am slightly bullish now. I was bearish but kept buying small E&Ps. Many of them are already cheap again. My previous bear idea has been invalidated. However, this is still no time for rampant bull yet.
After a while, longs get complacent. Today's fast dive reminded longs things could go wrong. That's why The Move Down Could Accelerate from Here. $48 is in the cards by Friday 2/10/2017. See my previous chart below, basically the same idea.
Chances are high that gold will drop back to below $1200 in the next few weeks. Essentially, the market still can't figure out what Trump's next moves and/or their impact on the economy will be, so there is no reason for a rampant gold bull yet.
Don't know what happened but my last chart on DXY (linked below) is invalid because of the mis-drawn Fibonacci scale. This is basically the same idea but with the right scale. Dollar is still quite weak.
Short Term Trend for SSRI for the next 1-2 months is Definitely Up. Long term trend is still undeterminate.
70-80% chance for USOIL to retreat back to $45-48 range in a month, most likely by mid Feb. For long term buyers, this will be a very good entry point, for all things related to oil.
Any drop from here will be a buy. Risk at this level is very minimum. Target: $34 by 12/31/2017