Now that longs are giving up, time for the Dollar to go back to at least 100-101 area.
You can just feel the market is getting tired. My last idea linked below, though not realized yet, is still valid. The idea is pretty much the same.
Sold all of my gold stocks a few days ago. Waiting for a good re-entry.
I will be a big buyer at around $21.85, where there is rock solid support.
Very likely to retest 2200 in the next 1-3 weeks.
This is my lastest guess of Gold's path to ascendance. The idea is that Gold would want to confuse most of us by following this path.
Buy in the range of $5.5 - $6.1 and you won't regret it.
Dollar is Likely to Fall in the Next 1-2 Weeks. Good chance to reach 101.00 by mid January.
The red and blue arrows are showing 2 alternative Paths to a substantial gain in a few months.
The sentiment for the drillers at this point is still slightly bearish overall. NE is also perceived as being a little weaker comparing to RIG etc in terms of backlog. That's why I think it has a good change to revisit $6.0 or even lower. The chart is just a reference and could be totally wrong. The market also needs time to realize oil is going up permanently....
NE Might Get Stuck in Consolidation for a While, before heading up again. Longs should hold and wait.
Trump could be a big spender. Gold will show its strength eventually in a tough world
The FOMC December meeting is putting so much pressure on PMs that once it's over, PMs will bounce no matter what decision FOMC makes. This will be very similar to SPX500's behavior before election. Once the uncertainly was over with election, SPX rallied hard, no matter who won.
Market Needs a Breather Before Going Higher.
RFP has medium-long term potentials but short term it's still under pressure.
For this setup to work, AG has to regain $10 quickly, ideally by the end of next week. Otherwise this setup is likely to be invalid. If the FED only raises by 0.25, then I would say there is a 60% chance AG can reach this $12 target by the end of Jan 2017.
My previous chart was rushed and while the setup may be possible, it looks strange (the time and scale don't feel right). Here is a more plausible view.
RIG is one of my biggest long holdings but it might top soon. Since it's shorts favorite pig it could fall fast once peaked. Good long term hold once dropped.