csmottola71

07:32

csmottola71

Trend based strategy on 15 min. Oil. Based on Swing Trading principles with harmonics. Also includes some specific chart pattern trades.

02:55

csmottola71

1 hour Oil chart to June 7th 2024 using my_MATR, which is a trend shift indicator with some cookies added to it, like Bull / Bear market signals and exhaustion alarm.

csmottola71 Updated 

On the left is the weekly close chart of the Nasdaq (No noise, no nonsense) which clearly shows 5 waves down hitting precise Fib retracement levels. These 5 waves are the primary A wave of a Cycle wave 4. (Look at my long term view published some time ago). On the right is a daily bar chart of the recent market drop. 5 waves are clearly identifiable, indicating...

csmottola71

Oil still on its way down and as Ukranians gain the upper hand over the Russians, with all other geopops going on against Putin, nothing seems to be able to stop oil from plunging. First target is 78 then 73. Dollar strength pushed by global economic and political woes, will continue to crush oil prices.

csmottola71

With yesterdays low my wave count has slightly changed, though nothing material. What appeared to be a wave 4 unfolding turns out to be a wave (B). If the low is in place, wave (C) of B is on it's way. I'll publish possible targets next week.

csmottola71 Updated 

Wave B well on it's way. If yesterdays low completed a wave 4 (size of 1 from top of 3) we shall complete quite rapidly the full 5 wave sequence of A of (B),fib targets on the chart. Note we shall be entering a wave 5 of 3 so expect a well defined trend to unfold in the coming weeks. Ultimate target of this wave (B) is quite likely to complete in ATH.

csmottola71 Updated 

Scrapped the old count and onto the next most probable count. We are still completing the A Wave of Primary degree within a Cycle wave 4. This A wave has developed into an expanding triangle and is within a 5th wave of E, hence closing up to completion. If this is an ABC correction B wave will make new all time highs. This is because the closest alternative to an...

csmottola71 Updated 

Sorry about this delay, but I am in the middle of a warzone. Anyway, nothing much changed on the elliottwave count other than the fact that the B of C seems to be developing into an expanded flat. My guy feeling is that we have bottomed (too many bears around) and we are poised for a massive flash rally back to, either : 15500/16000 or ATH's (All Time Highs. This...

csmottola71

All signs are pointing towards the beginning of a C of B wave. Divergence on the Dsaily RSI consistent with a wave 5, in this case of A, momentum shifting back into positive territory on the hourly chart. Wave C of B will develop in 5 waves with first target @ 15990. The first of the 5 waves of C should stall slightly above the line indicated as 'breakout' on the...

csmottola71 Updated 

Looks like also C of B of (B) is a straight line. First target hit and smashed. Next probable targets the Fib's on the chart.

csmottola71

Nasdaq hit the 200 MA and began retracing. We'll see if the top was the a leg of the Cycle B wave or a minor correction of a sub count. A b leg should retrace at a minimum 38% of A though I would expect a 44% correction to retest the previous resistance now support. From wherever the b leg is formed, expect a strong impulsive move towards 15800 / 16.000. Another...

csmottola71

Nasdaq approaching fast the 200 MA, which may be the intermediate stop for this B wave bull run. B waves develop in 3 moves this first of which looks like an X, being just a straight line up. Note that the 200 MA is still tilted upwards which, by some parameters, indicates that the market is still bullish. This B wave is counter to the A wave which developed from...

csmottola71 Updated 

Having pinpointed the low (see last weeks Elliott wave count) on the 0.618 extension, will give us important information for the extent of the unfolding sequence. A Cycle A wave seems to be in place and the first leg of B has gotten off to a fiery start. It has now bumped against two strong resistance levels, the 50 MA and the channel top. My personal opinion is...

csmottola71 Updated 

Not at all elegant or satisfying, but following the break of 13065 on Monday leaves me with this as the best possible count. We are completing a Primary C wave (Cycle A) with a motive pattern, meaning a diagonal 5 wave pattern with overlapping waves. The alternative would be a triangle C, but that would happen in an expanding flat, which this is not. The structure...

csmottola71

Don;t take this chart to seriously. My system isn't giving any signals today so drew something out of boredom ... but maybe ...

csmottola71 Updated 

Appears evident that a wave 1 was in place and we have quickly reached typical target objectives of wave 2, namely 75% and 85%, A drop below 13065 would deny this set up.

csmottola71 Updated 

Waiting for a wave 1 to be in place in order to estimate a wave 2 target and consequently give an educated guess on how the ABC correction will terminate, running or maybe expanded flat. Wave 1's generally end with an RSI in bullish territory. Slava Ukraini

csmottola71 Updated 

Before the war Russian reserves amounted to 630 billion USD, a conservative estimate puts them to this date @ around 500 billion USD. Every day that the war lingers on, costs russias coffers 15 to 20 billion USD. This is not considering the additional sanctions and exclusion from the banking system slapped on Russia this weekend. Following the debacle of the...