csmottola71

csmottola71

On the left is the russian rouble against the USD, to the left the same rouble to the Ukranian Hrivna. In the caseof the USD it was to be expected but the russian currency is also collapsing to the Ukranian Hrivna. Where do you think the smart money is placing its bets?

csmottola71

A B seems to have finally been put in place and should now expect 5 waves up to complete this C of B. Typical targets are between the 76 & 85% retracement zones, 15800 to 16200 (ish). I've left the triangle in because something curious emerged. The BC leg has the same extent both in time and price to the overshoot part of the E leg (ie: the part of E beneath the...

csmottola71 Updated 

This truly is an Alamo moment. Everything is working against the bullish case (allbeit short term). Inflation, the Fed, Putin, Sentiment. However, the market held. Who expected a 10, 20, 1000 % crash is extremely disappointed. It is true that prices lightly dipped below January lows. So what? If it was a wave 1, then it would be important and the afternoon bounce...

csmottola71

Is wave b a triangle? Looks like it. Support aligns on e and rsi divergence offers extra support to this thesis. This alternate count is in black.

csmottola71 Updated 

After dropping below 14100 my wave count is slightly changed, nothing material. C appears to have developed in a WXY pattern. Since prices bounced off the 85% retracement of Wave A (from January lows) i'm calling the B here. One element leaves me in doubt, that W would have developed in 5waves, which leaves open the possibility of another leg down. We are very...

csmottola71 Updated 

Nasdaq futures on coarse to end the first part of this rally. First targets I identified are between 15700 and 15760. This is a Wave C of B thus could ultimately retrace upto 58% from November highs to January lows. Currently we are completing Wave 1 of C thus will develop in an impulsive 5 wave pattern. Can also turn into a Triangle or other formations ... we'll see.

csmottola71 Updated 

Nasdaq has entered the last stage of this B wave. currently in the 5 of 5 of c of B. Where this will find a bottom is anyones guess. Fibonacci extension of 0-3 of C place typical targets (1.236 & 1.382) beyween 14000 and 14100 (ish) area. Where ever this finds a bottom it will be followed by wave C of B ergo, rip your pants off rally. CAUTION.

csmottola71

Chart speaks by its self. I'm publishing the Super Cycle chart for perspective of where my daily and hourly break downs are coming from. Included is a daily breakdown of wave 1, but not sure how snapshots work.

csmottola71

On the Nasdaq Futures contract an alternate count to that previously published has emerged. I'm not to keen on it because of the subminuette wave 4. But with Nasdaq everything is possible. A return above 14550 early next week would confirm this alternate count in which b of B is complete and we are in a c of B with targets mentioned in previous analysis.

csmottola71

Following the sharp rise to complete minute b of B, the market sharply and abruptly (as expected) changed course to the downside. This is a c of B thus should develop in 5 waves. As for now I can count only 3 (hourly chart from b) therefore expect resistance on the Fibonacci projections to complete a 4 of c (bullish) followed by a 5 of c (bearish). After this move...

csmottola71

The Primary B Wave is developing in a Flat. The Intermediate A of Primary B developed in 3 waves thus reducing the scope of possible patterns to Flat and Triangle. I'm going with flat since (A) stopped at 50% retracement of the move from last years high. If this is a regular flat the market will bounce between 13950 and 14100, respectively 84.4% and 76.4%...

csmottola71

At the time I am writing the Nasdaq futures are trading @ 15250 which (if held on the cash) would confirm we are in a Primary B wave targeting 16050 to 16300 area. Expect resistance @ 15370 (1.618 extension of the move off the lows). Side thought : Targets are being reached at an unusual rate. Moves which normally develop in weeks are now taking a matter of...

csmottola71 Updated 

Apple appears to have completed a Fibonacci AB=CD pattern. Minimum target off these levels is the top of C. An ABCD pattern also coincides with an Elliott Wave ABC correction. The rest is pretty self explanatory.

csmottola71

Today was the turn for the bulls to be trapped ... or was it? From mondays lows the Nasdaq appears to be forming a Fibonacci AB=CD pattern that would propel it to 14840. This would be significant because breaking above 14620 would reinforce the count in which we are now in an intermediate B wave with primary target at 15150. A break below 14050 would deny this...

csmottola71

The bear trap snapped. Allbeit lower than I thought, however 13720 is the 50% of the Intermediate bull sequence. Though not material from a trading stance, this does chamge the wave count. (Update later this week). Confirmation that we are in a B wave comes above 14620, not before. Other targets further up.

csmottola71

Nasdaq has entered the 50% to 61.8% retracement area of the 5 wave move and coming close to the previous wave 4 lows. Typically this is an area of where markets reverse. Also, volume spiked which signifies capitulation from one side or the other. Shorts need to be closed, if not done when there is selling volume that's when you get a short squeeze. Most pieces of...

csmottola71

Overnight the nasdaq futures contract has hit and bounced off the 1.618 extension of A. Or is it a 3? Only a return above the A low would confirm the move from ATH's is a correction and not a new bear market. Yesterday the cash market penetrated the 1.382 extension of A. Personally i'm going with it allbeit on a very short term basis (3 minute chart)

csmottola71

I;ve moved wave 4 to what I thought was developing in an intermediate wave (B). Rather we are now approaching wave 5 of Minor C, hence intermediate (A). In the 14900 area both wave 5 of C and C extension of A have relevant fibonacci extensions. I'll be shifting my bias to bullish in that area but still trading off the 3 minute chart (advice from previous NDQ wave count)