So the long term resistance (in the 30 years time frame) is already broken and indicators are overbought. The same occurs with the short term chart (2 years). It all makes me think we may be approaching the so long waited change in trend, but even when there was a lot of panic after Trump´s victory, I do not see capitulation. It looks exhausted but we still...
One day after the HillaryTrump debate, the USDMXN broke the short term resistance and now it is close to re-enter the long term trend channel where its has been since september 2015. On the 4 hour chart we may have a buy signal shortly despite we can appreciate some divergence on the one hour chart. So are still long the position.
Despite I have long been waiting for a change in trend, today´s movement seems to indicate that we are bottoming in the short term.
Take a look at the daily chart and we are at support level (based on the 1 year trend channel) and on the monthly chart, despite stochastic having divergence, MACD does not, but for the long term we would need to have it. Clear and...
So after a long long vacation, I am back. Just to see that this precious has gone nowhere.
I find it important to recall that in the long term we are at resistance levels, and even the 4 hour chart found overbought levels in the last two movements to the upside.
It may be that we are in early stages of a relevant down leg, so find myself more comfortable...
So the stop @ 18.30 was activated overnight and we are now waiting for a rebound at 18.40 for starting a short position.
If the triangle figure is correct, we should see 17.66 or 17.38 (0.78 fibonacci retreacement) as support levels for leg "C"
So the stop @ 18.30 was activated overnight and we are now waiting for a rebound at 18.40 for starting a short position.
If the triangle figure is correct, we should see 17.66 or 17.38 (0.78 fibonacci retreacement) as support levels for leg "C"
Now it is getting tricky.
We are testing resistance of the May channel, but considering MACD in the 4 hours chart, daily, weekly and monthly ones, it is very likely that we will test the 19.00 level.
So we stay with the same levels: stop @ 18.30 and sell order @ 19.00
In spite of oil, it does not want to go strongly up, looking at 4 hour charts, so I am thinking this is legg B in a wave 4. Eventhough, the legg is not over yet so it could go to 18.75 or even 19.00 said in last publication.
But since it is getting choppy I will place a stop @ 18.30 and still setting the target @ 19.00
As previously said, MACD confirmed divergence on daily basis and exchange is finally well back into the long term trend channel. It seems like bull-bear fight has concluded and bulls won. Today´s high @ 18.16 could need a small rest, but it should not go under 17.60 again. We are still long and still waiting for the 19.00 to get out.
The ups and downs since last february has bulls and bears out of control. However, consider that over the period MACD has gone from overbought to almost neutral, so I still think it will return to the uptrend channel from the period oct 2014-jan 2016. If it manages to close above 17.50 it will easily go to the upper line @ 19.00
Currently on support channel and still does not have bullish divergence MACD on daily basis. However, If support is broken, expect 16.50. But if resistance level is broken (17.60) and MACD does make the divergence, go long for the upper resistance @ 18.80
