does anyone even read this
in my estimation, the most likely outcome for bitcoin short term is a crash leading up to OR after the halving (too much built up hype--reflected by bearish technicals), but the price should revert to the stock-to-flow pricing model afterwards within +-2 SD (i.e. 95% confidence) mid to long term, bitcoin is looking extremely bullish. there's simply no reason to...
Lag defined as time it takes for price to catch up with the model price after the halving happens. Average time based on previous 2 halvings is 42 weeks. In the short term don't expect price to regress to the model immediately
i'm expecting xtz/btc to continue along the recent uptrend & test the resistance at previous highs. if we see a breakout with strong volume, moon time
The best-performing markets tend to flip flop every decade or so. For example, in 2000-2010, emerging markets outperformed US markets. In the following decade (2010-2020), US markets significantly outperformed and emerging underperformed. This concept is known as reversion to the mean - valuations get stretched in one direction, and eventually, it is bound to...
Technicals: - S&P500 broke a long term uptrend and now is seeing a rebound. a rebound was expected given the current level of volatility. I expect the price to get rejected at the long term uptrend line, but a throw-over is in the cards as it would be a perfect bull trap - support boxes are drawn out. these levels are likely contenders for a solid bottom since...
USD is the world reserve currency, it tends to outperform most other currencies during a liquidity crisis like we have been seeing the last few days. If the market keeps crashing and things keep going in that direction, expect USD to keep pumping. My strategy to tackle this move: calls on UUP, march 27th expiry (high-risk, high-reward), strike price $28 USD
"if you don't own gold, you know neither history nor economics" - dalio
Full send, no stop loss Performed well in '08 recession Juicy yield, in a period where investors are desperate for it 3.2 forward p/e Fat bull div