exited all longs with this pump. was mainly in eth as wee moved avax long profits to eth a few days ago. don't think avax takes out the high. was the final momentum pump we were looking for. next two weeks or so expecting all downside action. just about everything should be a safe short from here.
think all markets are essentially topped, so looking for best shorts. avax looks like it's at heavy resistance here vs eth. think it's likely the better short. should drop ~10% vs eth.
bitcoin with some bruuutal weekend pa. continued attempts at swing high, wiping out stops. just cant seem to break through the daily cloud. adding confluence to our bearish bias here.
$dxy continues to push off the lows, adding bearish confluence to markets. dxy is tricky, as it's more macro than markets tend to be. bullish dxy doesn't inherently mean bearishness for markets, but more so a risk off signal that can take time to reflect in the market itself. in this case, however, it's running in a pretty close pair.
looks awful. everyone was eyeing $18 as obvious support. looks incredibly weak here. think this dumps with xag and crypto. been eyeing arouund $15.60 for a good while now.
$NDAQ holding up all markets at the moment. crypto already on it's path to nuke, while tech is sitting in our resistance box. expecting this to flush. that's when the real fun begins :)
the "bullish" scenario, as we see it, is still set for a major pull back from this level. looking to retest the lows. from a bullish count, would need to recover quickly to see a retest of the 4500 zone, before 5 more waves down. there's also the chance that this is the top of the dead cat and we get the 5 waves down starting from here. either way, this ads...
approaching potential wave b conclusion around $170. no divs to work with at this point, which is to be expected. should start popping up around that level. keeping the blue box down as potential heavy accumulation zone, as i don't believe this was macro market bottom.
adding bearish confluence with our overall swing bearish bias. eth vs btc feels topped. right at the top of our resistance box. bear flag present with decreasing momentum and divs on rsi (although currently weak). think eth will erase this entire bull move.
COINBASE:LINKUSD still in the pain range, but after a successful abc down for our local w2, i think this ranges up with the rest of the market to setup for a potential breakout to $10. staking coming up later this year as well.
still want 28k. wave count looks strong. expecting turbulence in the orange box and that's when we'll start seeing some bear divs across multiple time frames. get ready for one last ride.
spx also looking topped. bearish div on momentum and divs popping up on HTF. think this is a safe short here and finding confluence with positive cpi data. sell the news.
looks finally ready too make this last leg up. $1850 target minimum. could run all the way to $2k. will assess pa as we go. manual stop here.
rsr looks like it's gonna be a bear market chad. been a holde for years at this point. addeed more right before th bottom fell out in march lmwo. leaning towards significant out perform for the remainder of the year.
should have stuck with this game plan as avax bounce right at our w4 completion zone. still targeting $28-30 minimum. only area i'm concerned about is the ? white box. rejection there would signal another wave down and likely the end of this bull run. until then, long your longs. avax vs eth for additional context. think avax outperforms again:
playing this level by level. currently holding above wave 1, which is what we'd like to see for a wave 4, with wave 5 coming up. marked this green box last week as potential support. looks to be holding. wave 5 should put us around $28.
$btc bear looks flaggish. looking for overextension to the downside, which adds confluence to another leg up to 28-30k for the corn. long and strong.
think $avax will outpeform $eth here again on this next leg. great bull divs formed on 4h. last usd leg up $avax was the stronger long and better short on the way back down. volatility has been insane with this pair if you can play the swings right. steady lads.