finitemonk

finitemonk

Expecting wave v of (iii) to terminate around 38.9. Price level is both 1.618 approx. of wave i of (v) and would make wave v of (iii) 0.618 the length of wave i. Price is showing signs of fall weakening / strengthening. (Brent looks like it has some catching up to do with another $9.00 approx. suggestive of temporary weakening of dollar, WTI being slightly the...

finitemonk

0.7861 extensions seem to typify key levels. If wave count is correct (and I'm leaning to the alt count, in red) 1.035 is a very key level. Also keenly watching the triangle continuation in RSI (red arrow) - it's seems disproportionately large for the move, in which case an initial push down tomorrow to potentially complete wave v of (v) would tend to form strong...

finitemonk

The 'original count' is how I had it labelled until very recently. On one hand this 'third wave down' which looks near completion appears from the sharpness of drop, to qualify for a wave five. On the other hand there seems no proportionate more complex price action for a wave IV, so I'm wondering of $60 or thereabouts will become the 'ceiling' to a further drop....

finitemonk

In Red. It is sort of the portion I have arrowed inverted. PS. I read something interesting about the potential reason for oil price continuing to drop. See here: oilprice.com and here: www.sifferkoll.se also here: www.sifferkoll.se

finitemonk

(I haven't pretended to make this posh) It seems clear from the triangle it's currently moving up to a new multiyear high, from a wave (iv). Whatever this does could be THE most important wave count in the markets right now, because it relates to the wave count in the Yen crosses, the USDJPY esp. and so to the dollar, and the stock markets and so on ... Wave 5 -...

finitemonk

This move is good, doing what I had hoped. (The EURUSD is making roughly the same moves, I'm waiting for the pair to see if it hits the 1.22 area). Commodities seem to be bottoming overall, PMs maybe have already. Unlikely to have commodities going one way, and the EURUSD the other, Whether you label these waves a-b-c or numbered (today's high encroached into i...

finitemonk

If Mr. Kuroda was serious about pre-empting the risks that slumping oil prices will pose to consumer inflation, maybe he should stop devaluing the currency. I'm no economic wizzo but if you persist in devaluing your currency, thus strengthen the dollar, in which oil is priced, voila ... One may achieve precisely what you set out to avoid.

finitemonk

Contrary to my earlier wave count today I think better labelled so, in red with it having completed wave (iii), just not enough bounce is there ... small profit today ... So I think should be in (iv) Think 1105 ish is a good level to look at, a cluster of significant levels there inc. 0.618 of wave 1

finitemonk

This is the wave count I'm looking at in conjunction with gold/silver, at the potential end of wave C of an ABC corrective wave down

finitemonk

1149.65 is 1.618 of wave (i). I think something is up with the dollar within hours/days to significant weakening. Oil also seems to be equally nearing a wave end/major turn. I also think there is a possibility this is not part of wave 5, but that it is. (Revised my previous outlook on the EURUSD, which kinda leads to same conclusion also - the RSI on the weekly,...

finitemonk

IF - this wave count is correct and we are currently in (iv) & IF wave (iv) is at the 0.382/0.618 level of the whole wave (as it is in wave iv of (iii) and in wave iv of iii) & it continues to drop in a wave (v) then the end should be at approx. .. ooh, I've reset wave (iv) a bit higher - 74.67 - just a tad below the Oct. 2011 low @ 74.94 - (the other alt count...

finitemonk

If this is in a wave (c) & it is currently in wave iv, by fib extension it could drop to 73.5 or thereabouts (which seems to me just low enough) : the RSI is dropping very low meaning price not too distant to go much higher - again based on fib projection (if A is 0.618/0.382) as high as $165. ... lets see in / check this low 1st. No doubt it is VERY significant.

finitemonk

Also likely out of it's a-b-c-d-e pattern & on a mission downward. No doubt this motive wave down is complete. Someone floated this idea recently ... That this is one of a 5 wave move down. I feel this - there is insufficient bounce. If it moves up say to 1244, or 1283 or whatever, then starts downward under pressure from a strengthening $, maybe that 'gold...

finitemonk

Just keeps on falling ... Again, as previous EURUSD post, this somewhat counterintuitive triangle 'b' wave. If Crude drops much lower, it's about to lose long term support. I read very recently a major country preparing for oil at $60 a barrel. I see what they mean. Possible. Similar to EURUSD drops to long term channel bottom. Deflation (to B) followed by massive...

finitemonk

I do find triangles esp. of this kind one of the more difficult patterns, a bit counterintuitive, because it's almost atop a bull run, anyhow, now correctly labelled I think. Behaviourally it's falling, falling, off the triangle, out the up channel, this little correction is a panic, 'oops dropped out'. Where to? Maybe it just continues to unfold as motive, this...

finitemonk

Ahead of FOMC minutes. Could be. As stands just an a-b-c. Show me E. Seems markets might be expecting to sell the dollar more, which is what this trade is, not a Euro buy. So far is a 'default' trade largely on the back of Yen appreciation.

finitemonk

Could make coherent sense with what I think PMs, maybe Oil will do... Anyhow, 5 in top left corner is top of full motive, could be A. If the current wave is E, this motive wave just completed could be labelled (a), & there could be what will seem an extra kink in USD X's as the motive is part of corrective. (PMs also seem to have completed a wave). Right now...

finitemonk

See previous post 'End of Wave'. Gold is almost there, only a few dollars to go to below 1178. This pair: could be an ending diagonal.