finitemonk

finitemonk

The RSI is too low. The DXY has good support, Is about to bounce maybe. There looks like a small fork in progress. I THINK it might be doing a little diamond-ish type pattern (on the 20 min is good). The rising wedge is probably much much longer. I think it's only tapped the bottom. There is more to cross in this apparent down channel. I'm looking for a long...

finitemonk

In progress. (RSI continues to show bearish tendency.)

finitemonk

I thought I'd check it out in a shorter time frame. Tight. (I should mention this has developed since around 10th Feb, from the 17th onwards, very close. From 24th XAUUSD frontrunning SPX. Theory/cause: improvement in overnight XAUUSD swap rate). Just tested. Trading SPX on the similarity of (H&S) pattern & disparity. Gold dropping, therefore SPX will. 5mins....

finitemonk

Just filling time this am. Comparing overlays ... Nikkei, Yen crosses etc, ... A question in at least a few minds (inc. mine) , why is the S&P that high? On the 10th or thereafter it de-couples from (more traditional Yen crosses) ... A little while the AUDJPY could account. XAUUSD. Hmm. That's more like it. Some say gold is likely to go quite bearish soon (at...

finitemonk

Sometimes the RSI says ...

finitemonk

In all it's roughness. Possibly.

finitemonk

Approaching channel / expanding triangle top. RSI oversold. The channel break at the bottom suggests underlying weakness A change in strength due to BOE forward guidance: interest rates. Depends if the DXY falling out a little diamond (daily) as it has, breaks channel a fraction below 80. XAUUSD has just pushed above key price (1309.96) level so higher (suggestive...

finitemonk

Not seen anyone analyse the behaviour of a pair quite in this way, something I've observed, thought I'd give it a go. It based on the appearance of the candles, mostly the bodies, because if the way they form blocks. Easy to with this pair because they are both quite 'mechanical' (as opposed to fluid, e.g AUDJPY) The pair has been travelling down a channel since...

finitemonk

With stock markets having thrown caution to the wind ... The Yen weakening (not unconnected) (The AUDJPY rocking up) But the dollar weak (see what happens this afternoon.) IF, IF, IF (if the pair goes that high it does beg a question over the stock surge as that will likely fuel towards new highs, the RSI suggests not yet) it maintains the sharp up channel and...

finitemonk

It's worth closing the 90 odd pip long from yesterday, I think. The XABCD shows a 0.618 from X-D. As it's broken above the 0.9 area, it punched up through the resistance overnight, indicating equal support from the channel lines around or just below the 0.9. On the upside of it's 2 month long down channel. Yellen's etc notwithstanding, a sideways move on the cards...

finitemonk

Currently in a continuation pattern, looking to be heading back up to point D on the XABCD, the 0.618 on the Mod Schiff, roughly satisfying an Action/Reaction price move. If it does get there, worth a short. First it needs to break above a) the sliding parallel running up off point A & the ML (red). (There is some suggestion cross-market Yellen/Fed tomorrow...

finitemonk

Trying to broaden my analysis tools: Contracting Triangle + Elliot Waves. Here goes: I think given the contracting triangle and the 3 legs up, 2 down, this could be a reversal pattern. The top down sloping resistance is unexpected. To me the tilt has tipped off the long term up channel. I know the USD has been through a period of weakness, hence the appearance of...

finitemonk

Presented in entirely raw format, lol. Clearly there are a few things going on here, recently I've been looking at the strong validity of cross market channels. More on that, better presented (and questioned) over the weekend perhaps but hey, sometimes it's all about the trade. Being rather frustrated with the vagaries of forex markets ... I've been practising...

finitemonk

12.30 UTC the delayed US market unemployment figures are released. (see here www.fxstreet.com) Rumour has it it will be better than expected. Technically it's an odd one, hard to read. Because of the 'dollar dump' post debt ceiling many relevant charts show a flag/pennant, one would expect it to weaken the dollar. All considered I'm gonna take a pot shot guess it...

finitemonk

Having had my two last EURUSD charts not work (reiterates why you should make up your own mind), I kept a close eye on my short trades and chipped out at a small profit, yes I had doubts. The cup shape (unusual for this pair I think) is approaching an interesting point. The Median Line of a huge long term Mod Schiff pitchfork. The dates of the B/C points are...

finitemonk

Having had my two last EURUSD charts not work (reiterates why you should make up your own mind), I kept a close eye on my short trades and chipped out at a small profit, yes I had doubts, (esp as Mr. Draghi was going to involved: volatility) The cup shape (unusual for this pair, I have some idea they form under major long term lines) is approaching an interesting...

finitemonk

As before. Tweaked. Looking better. Upper 0.75 of the Andrews just turning from support to resistance.

finitemonk

As that uptrend weakens somewhat to the background. Watching carefully these multiple tops spike, to me they are they are the first concrete hints of a potential huge change. (Nice candle details over the last 36 hours.) Flag formation: a small detail, went in from the top: out the bottom. I might be wrong about all this bit but this is all very repeatable, on...