fritzz

fritzz Updated 

I'm assuming that May was the top, but that doesn't have to be the case. October through December have been very bullish months for Bitcoin, and in fact the most bullish months. It's possible we see a new top coming by December, but even if that's the case, then if history repeats itself, we should see 35-40 months before new highs. In either case, we should see...

fritzz

If we get the brutal 3 year bear run, these are the levels I plan on buying LINK. Veterans of last bear run would not be shocked if we saw 90-98% drops on major coins, regardless of their fundamentals. This is my plan - obviously not advising anyone to follow suit. I will however say it is a good idea to have cash handy for these possibilities. Green -...

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Since so many people use activity from this wallet as an indicator of where the market is going, I thought I'd provide a rough idea of where he bought and how much and where sold and how much. This wallet bitinfocharts.com

fritzz Updated 

See description in chart. I think we see some downside unless we break and close above area highlighted in chart.

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Same idea, but there was one more leg up before the inevitable. If the similarities hold, then target is 38.

fritzz Updated 

Update to the 14D chart which seems to have the clearest points of resistance/support. It's worked so far. Lets see if it can help us going forward. I lean bearish, but if we can close out over 48k, then there's a chance BTC reaches ATHs.

fritzz Updated 

Confirmation if we get lower low, below 44k. Seems to be a common distribution pattern. Would be funny if we saw a repeat. If it happens, then the last time it played out gives us a target of 38k for this time. I know at that price everyone would shit their pants and become super bearish.

fritzz Updated 

Support 2 is holding well. What was support 1 at around 47k in part 1 (link below), is now resistance 1, and I'm metaphorically betting we revisit it in the next 14 days. I'm not buying back until/if the 50k levels are reclaimed - and will be all in again if 58k is reclaimed. I'm alright with missing out on 25% potential gains, so long as I'm sure the bull is back.

fritzz Updated 

Note the color coded similarities between the price action in the last few days to the price action that resulted in the top. Down?

fritzz Updated 

Pay attention to parabola in purple. If price breaks through the parabola, then I'm selling and rebuying between 100 and 110.

fritzz Updated 

The last time we saw a coin divert like this from bitcoin during a general market downturn was LINK in 2019-2020. If things continue as they are, imo QNT is the comfiest coin to hold during a full blown 2-3 year bear. Quant is still in a textbook bull run (higher highs, higher lows, previous resistance turns support) but that will be invalidated if it can't hold...

fritzz Updated 

Could also see a pump to 20 bucks if we can overtake and close above 16.

fritzz Updated 

Each 14 day bar has opened and closed in roughly the same range (highlighted blue). The latest wick below touched support 1, then retraced back into the blue range. That quick retrace is a bullish sign. It seems the path that BTC takes next will be shown by a bar which closes either above or below the range. Keep an eye out. IF 14d bar closes above the...

fritzz

Color coded to show similarity. It looks like a hand, with each fingernail painted a different color. If the similarities hold up, then we should see BTC at 46k soon.

fritzz

There is a strong bearish argument to be made. In my opinion it is stronger than the bull case at the moment. I won't go over it here, but if we assume the bears are right, then I provide three reasons why 40k-42k is a good place to buy.

fritzz

So long as we stay above $1.50, a next leg up is probable.

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Small update to this idea.

fritzz Updated 

Analysis in chart