With at least 75 additional bps of Fed cuts to digest after September, Bitcoin should continue its trend into 5 key events:
Sep 26 speech by Jerome Powell
Nov 5 Election Day
Nov 7 FOMC (-50bps)
Dec 18 FOMC (-25bps)
Jan 20 Inauguration Day
This should be catalyzed by the ETF options meltup which will be occurring simultaneously.
We expect this to rug on the fundamentals, but FOMC had opposite effect
The 3-sigma Bollinger will light any wick that enters it
Let the wick burn and wait for a close outside the 2.5-3 sigma channel to trigger the trade, and watch it explode to the downside
Risk the highest wick in the channel
Target 3x
BoJ is watching you do this
10-yr yields 100 bps below target & trending lower
US Election 2 days before next FOMC
Expect October surprise?
FOMO into US10Y now & sell the election/emergency
With this sentiment, looking for clown-world short setups in fx
