Price action was buy, buy, buy, so I moved my SL and TPs up. Exited at 61.85
Bought toward the bottom of the consolidation triangle (61.17). I feel there's a higher probability the TP (61.83) hitting before the SL (60.62). Price action is in favor of bears, but fundamentals are in the bull's corner. There don't seem to be many buyers in the past few trading sessions, but support is strong, in my opinion, from 58.00 to 61 and change.
Downward trend, but a touch of 60.00 or 59.xx would most likely prove a bounce. IMO, if the inventory numbers are: 1) Storage levels above expectation (seasonal and yearly levels), price may move down to 60.00 or 59.xx 2) Storage levels inline with expectation, price may move up; 3) Storage levels below expectation (seasonal and yearly levels),price may move...
Looking to see if the price bounces a few times more and then will be in for a long position. I'm 60%/40% on the probability it will hit 65.00 before it drops below 59.00, respectively, but with maintenance season, recent price action, uncertainty about gasoline fundamentals (more builds), and the constant beating of the US shale oil drum, pun intended, I'm...
Recent touch of low 58s was due to seasonal weakness and a much broader market sell off; dollar strength. Oil prices will continue to the upside with the high probability of a risk premium due to the current US administration, low capex, storage numbers hovering just above or below multi-year averages, and the miscalculation of US shale oil abilities and possibilities.