gb50k

gb50k

Price and range typically move in opposite directions (you will pay more for a less volatile asset). The bottom chart (Average True Range) looks like a mirror image of the top (Price). For a perfect example I'm appending the same chat but have scrolled back to the COVID drop. The ATR is in a larger downtrend that remains intact. ** It did not break out today....

gb50k

Safe experience lull you into a false sense of security, even when you know about a clear and present danger. That's what experts on risk and decision making** say about the role of our personal experience in our risk perception. Take 9/11 for example. Many, suddenly concerned about the risk in flying, opted to drive instead. However, in reality the risk of...

gb50k

Todays ATR continues to ignore (not confirm) a downward move in equities. Additionally, todays index/'VIX' move is best described as a sideways shift of the daily range.

gb50k

The summary: Stocks fell ("Faded"?) out of the main upward channel. Bulls can hang there hats on the ATR that has not confirmed a reversal. Chart shows the mean of 3 US stock indexes divided by their respective volatility index: SPX / VIX , NDQ / VXN , DJA / VXD. This is one approach to putting all 3 on a single scale and is conceptually similar to Z-score,...

gb50k

Chart shows SPY (2D) and the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA(aqua) and 200DMA (yellow). Each series is the mean percentage of 7 index's which, in turn, aggregate several thousand underlying stocks. The 7 indexes: S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell, TSX, NYSE, AMEX The peaks of the index coincide with market tops (as shown in the chart). Based on this pattern...

gb50k

Chart panes: SPY, 240m price indicator: momentum midline oscillator Price exhibits, perhaps historic, divergence from the momentum oscillator below. This is just one of many signs concerning experts about the possibility of a global financial crisis. Managing risk in this environment feels ironic at times. It reminds me a Douglas Adams humor book from the...

gb50k

Chart: SPY 2 week TF. The answers are both in the chart and below. SPOILER: If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid. Interesting: A downtrend is defined as LOWER lows (LL) and LOWER highs (LH). Uptrend? as HL's and HH's. ** A single HIGHER high (HH) invalidates a downtrend trend in that TF. Trend is relative to TF and can be valid in one TF...

gb50k

The SPX chart has 2 goals and one constraint: Demonstrate the VIX / VVIX ratio as an inverse momentum indicator for SPX. The VIX is risk adjusted" by VVIX and the ratio is more useful than VIX alone. "Useful" is similar to 'Statistical Power' and means less data required to identify smaller changes amidst higher volatility. Suggest that an ATH of SPX...

gb50k

SPX500 made a higher high 3W chart (As of 6/12/22 10:50pm EST) SPX500 is at a higher low (Last months low: 3810) Also at ~3810: SPX 2yr fib (0.618)= 3814 SPX500 2yr fib (0.618)= 3812 Price action is consistent with a bullish reversal. (TF:3W) Sentiment is record breaking bearish. Most money is short or on the sidelines. A reversal would be high volume...

gb50k

Submitted for your approval, one ADVDEC.US , a drab and undistinguished breadth index that made history last Friday, May27th 2022. On any given day, ADVDEC shows the number of stocks advancing minus the number declining. Last Friday the index made the highest reading of its 12 year history. At the time of writing both bulls and bears argue how this...

gb50k

Pane 1: VVIX appears to have broken support implying lower VIX volatility Lower VIX volatility typically means lower VIX. But not always. Consider VIX spiking to 35 and price going crazy. Usually the "volatility event" passes, price and VIX and VVIX all calm down. Imagine the same spike to 35, but this time, price goes nuts every day for a week, up 2%,...

gb50k

Chart show's NQ Monthly price 2002 - present. Red dotted line: 1 year VWAP +/- 2.5 SD www.investopedia.com White dotted line: 10yr VWAP, and the white band is+2.5 SD 10yr VWAP today is at 5074 (thus the title) while price Is it reasonable to suggest NQ may drop to it's 10yr VWAP, to 5074? Yes, it's a plausible expectation because. It's...

gb50k

The chart: Shows an index average for SPX, NAS and DOW using rescaled CFD and futures prices. Indicator is a momentum oscillator (midline) with an envelope much like a Bollinger band. The paradox: The consensus is the chart is a picture of 'doom' (as bearish as it gets). At the same time, every trader in the chat room was bullish on the upcoming...

gb50k

A 2 year scenario projecting the financial crisis of 2008-2009 into the future Chart (W, LOG): Stocks: The averaged futures for SPX, NAS and DJ were weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com 200MA, 50MA, and 21MA Today's price and date: at the intersection of the cross. Financial crisis:...

gb50k

This long is counter trend in some TF's. But price continues to opt-in for long as it breaks through several sources of confluence. Most importantly the trade has a low risk / reward ratio. Possible Context (not factored into trade): Evolving currencies in the East are said to be backed by a broad basket of commodities. A move towards Uranium as an energy...

gb50k

"Buy the rumor, sell the news" Yes it's Econ 101, Market design 201, Behavioral Finance 301... For the rest of us, it's counterintuitive and can lead to losses (ex. you short bad news as the market rallies and never looks back, leaving you in the dust.

gb50k

Currencies are falling while stocks and commodities rise. This has been the case over centuries (see: "Principles", Dailo) On the chart: DXY as a dollar proxy Yen futures Commodities: the mean of 3 ETF's tracking broad commodity index's SPX500 tracks the S&P500 index. Each series has been rescaled to have a similar ranges (visually). A linear...

gb50k

Chart shows the combined 3 index. They are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com In the red box is a confluence of: Support from 3mo chart (previous 2 candle) in purple POC of Volume Profile 0.5 Fib of recent HH and LL. Redbox marks current swing high and low The Prediction: ...