Brent Crude Oil price is expected to consolidate between 93 to 100, with the main catalyst being China's Covid Policy.
There were on-and-off hopes of China's reopening.
However, we are still very much on the fence given the continued strict Covid measures in China.
On the other hand, China did announce an easing of the measures, reducing the quarantine time....
Looks like S&P500 bulls, but expect that it will only go so far.
Unemployment rate has gone up 2%.
NFP higher than expected but lower than previous.
But, inflation still on the rise. Fed is poised to hold their stand, continue hiking interest rates albeit at a slower pace.
Interest rates hikes are possibly priced in by now - with the Fed having made a clear...
Stock market has still stayed in a bearish market structure. Observing multiple bull rallies throughout since February/March 2022. And bull rallies will continue so long as market sentiment continues to expect a more negative month/quarter than it actually is, although still in a decline versus previous month/quarter.
We can tell bearish market sentiment from the...
I adjusted wave 6 on the current chart to the current downside move.
Haven't been looking at US30 for awhile, but been focusing more on the S&P chart. Either way, the pattern is the same.
Market is playing out, kind of as forecasted based on charts published months back.
Are we there yet?
At wave 5, the market was going "are we there yet?" Then the market...
MoM economic reports are beginning to show very meager results. Optimism is slowly fading out, and we're starting to have more bears in the market.
Impact from interest rate hikes will take a while to show. Middle and lower income are feeling the pinch, but the market has been more resilient as we have learnt from history.
The retail stock market hasn't come to...
S&P500 Peaked 4800, with pull backs to 4630.
Current pullback to 4300 and we're seeing a huge drop to close the week. China's earnings report brought some storm to the market, shaking the bear rally.
1. Inflation has not gotten any better - it just stayed flat MoM
2. Rate hikes expected to continue to tackle inflation
3. Market structure still maintaining a down...
Gold shot up but rejected a key price level.
Close was above previous highs.
Expecting a "slow" climb back toward the high at the key level between 1805 to 1810 before continuing a the dip.
CPI data was very favorable - expecting a lower probability of 75bps interest rate hike in the next cycle. But, as long as interest rates continue to go up to combat...
Not accounting for any fundamentals, the OANDA:SPX500USD and the OANDA:US30USD had a strong rejection from heading lower in 3 consecutive weeks.
Fundamentals will be required to decide whether the market is moving back to a long term BUY.
We hit a low of ~-20% from the highs on the DJIA and ~ -25% from the highs on the S&P500.
On multiple time frames, prices...
Could it be that market cycles are shorter now, versus back then in 2008?
Also, we probably have more participants in the market now compared to prior years.
More investors, traders as it has become more accessible.
More people learnt from 2008 crash to buy the dips on indexes like the S&P as there is a very high probability of it only going higher.
But, here's...
S&P was hit by CPI news release with about a 2% drop from the 1H candle.
Prices started climbing there after, but this could be a result of price-action, take profit at a key level.
We see this in the 1D chart, for a rally base rally which was printed from 20-24 June 2022.
Double top potentially forming if price does break the 3760 RBR zone.
Where do we see...
Although a couple of crypto exchanges and hedge funds are caving in...
Expecting some short term up side on BTC.
Last called a re-entry on buys at 19.6k.
Will have to break 22k to have that higher high, then we can expect a more positive outlook.
BTC prices have stabilized and consolidated above the 20k mark.
Markets have been in a huge consolidation.
US caused Russia's default, although they had the means to pay up.
Shows how much control US has over fiat. Not forgetting how US seized Russian billionaire's assets etc.
Would expect confidence in fiat to dwindle given that from the current situation it...
Last week's news headline, "OPEC sticks to production plan as high oil prices boost economy".
We could almost say oil is a necessity in our daily lives. For transport, for heating in cold countries.
Although we face high inflation, and a possible recession, would we expect oil to hit a point of demand destruction?
At this point, I doubt so. So there is a real...
Looking at potential upsides for BTC.
Entries on rejection of 38500, or rejection of 37700. Both would signal uptrend considering how the weekly support held.
In 2008, S&P formed a double top, with the first bearish candle sparking the dip was a high of 1550.
Thereafter, the dip lasted approximately 2 years and 4 months from November 2007 with the first monthly bullish candle on March 2009.
It took about 4 years for prices to climb back to the previous high.
Price formed a support around 2500-2600 on the monthly chart....
I was watching the patterns in 2008 crash, and how it might translate into today's situation.
Although there are quite some differences between the 2 events. We are having a "war" at this point, and hoping it doesn't escalate.
Pray for peace in Ukraine.
That aside. I have the image of the 2008 Weekly candle chart pasted for easy reference against the present...
Price broke the support again. We are early in the week but looking to cover the previous wick and possibly head lower.
Given that a war is going on now, and not simply an economic crash, we may not even get a second pull back (people buying the dips).
Expecting to clear the previous candle wick, to 32,300, and we'll see how market reacts from there.
BTCUSD has reached a major key area on the 1D Chart.
Given the uncertainty in fiat, and how much it was impacted after the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it looks like the market has reached a deciding point on whether BTCUSD should continue the up trend.
While countries are trying to regulate cryptocurrency, the core idea still lies in its blockchain technology and...
