goodguy

goodguy

Point .e of the triangle went a little lower than I expected but stayed >.c to complete I believe a 5 wave triangle as can occur as a "b" wave correction. Iffffff the c wave = the a wave then price would move to about the top of the target box. IF c would equal .62 x a then it would go to the lower end of the box. Stop if <.e (56.81). Notice the short term RSI...

goodguy

You may want to keep an eye on this. It's only Monday but I am trying to look ahead. Will we have a close below this long term trend line after 6 years? If so would seem bearish to me. Recheck on Friday. Take care. Have a good week.

goodguy

I still favor we are at a bottoming process for silver, gold, and the gold miners. Would wait for a at a favorable candlestick pattern or the short term down trend line break so you have solid stopping point below you. Take care. Good luck.

goodguy

Well so far so good. .d stayed <.b and price is now <a. Often in contracting triangles there is a fib relationship between the waves. One common one is that the e wave is a fib relationship to the c wave, such as in this case .e may end up at .618 x .c. We will know soon. If price goes below .a then this concept is wrong, ie I will be wrong.Hope not. I hate...

goodguy

Since the recent posting the price did go up. If this to be a triangle the current short term rise should not exceed .b (62.55) but rather go down to < a (58.61) but not lower than .a (55.74). If it does all that we should have a nice 5 wave contracting triangle which would likely go up to about the yellow box. There is a bearish divergence in the RSI which...

goodguy

Last week we had a great example of a bearish harami candle formation on the weekly chart. A few weeks previously we a weekly bearish engulfment.. The intermediate tend line is broken from last October. Still the long term up trend line is intact but I think there is a good chance we will be at least testing that line, esp if we finish the week with an another...

goodguy

In my last post I suggested crude oil would likely be going higher. Instead it has gone sideways while the us dollar has been going up. One possibility is that it is forming a triangle consolidation prior to another jump up. This is supported by the positive reversal in the RSI. IFFFF correct the near term horizontal line should not be taken out. (55.69) . If...

goodguy

I think the most recent back and forth action of the GDX may be an expanding triangle consolidation. Notice the potential positive reversal in the RSI (RSI goes down and price goes sideways). If correct then an up move is likely at hand. If the intermediate term downtrend line can be broken then a eventual rise to 28 or 30 or higher is possible. All speculation...

goodguy

We did a small pop up as I suggested 13 days ago. I still remain longer term bullish on the precious metals. Longer term and shorter term down trend lines have been broken. The previous high from early April has been bettered. I think it is likely there is short term more down action for the next few days but I personally will not trade that since longer term I am...

goodguy

Could be another bounce up but I think there is a good chance new downtrend has begun. Some shorter term volatility index indicators I follow for the Russell 2000 (one and two hour RVX) have turned positive (negative for the index).

goodguy

Hope you had a great Memorial day break. We did get the bounce I suspected might happen 12 days ago. but since what I had labeled 1 down has been exceeded. the pattern now is more of a a-b-c- corrective pattern. So one possibility is another a-b-c to about the yellow box area then more down action. But we could get a continuation of the previous bull trend and...

goodguy

My most recent post on IWM was stopped out today. This suggests more upside ahead. The top may still MAY be in with the count given above. But would not trade on "counts" only but use them to anticipate then wait for price action to confirm. Take care. See link to ComicDust as well.

goodguy

Things have worked out well from my last posting (see link below). We have almost hit the target I suggested. If my counting happens to be correct then .5 often relates to the size of .1. One possibility in this case .5=.68 x .1 at around 92.78 which is close to the 93 I suggested earlier. We have a potential bullish divergence int the RSI as well. Personally I...

goodguy

Notice often (but not always) the most impressive up moves are when the macd goes above zero as it appears it is about to do. Two very long term down trend lines are now broken at least on the linear (not log) daily chart. ETFs 1x long SLV, 3x long USLV. See post from 1 week ago for longer term chart. Take care.

goodguy

24 days ago I posted a count of IWM I thought likely.. So far the peek at that time has not been exceeded. I now think there is a good chance a true downtrend has started. Both of the counts I currently favor are bearish. Both have a stop of 123.82. Notice we now have a negative reversal in the RSI. Bear ETFs 2x: TWM, 3x TZA. Best to ya. Goodguy Not a...

goodguy

EEM has dropped nicely since my post 7 days ago. Personally I am covering my short position temporarily which usually means EEM will now drop like a rock. But I noticed there is now a potential positive reversal on the 2 hour chart which sometimes leads to a nice bounce. If price drops below 42.45 then the reversal will be cancelled. If short you may want to...

goodguy

My guess from 6 days ago is working out well so far. On this chart I have placed the fib relationships for the possibility that c would equal .618 x a, or c= a. But shorter term my target is around 63. We'll see. Take care. Have a great day. 3x long ETF is UWTI.

goodguy

Watching silver closely. Futures up today so far. Will see if it can top recent high in the next few days. SLV 1x, USLV 3x etf.