hope_freiheit

hope_freiheit

Bought Chinese tech stocks last week because they are cheap and appear to be at technical bottoms.

hope_freiheit

LTC has been showing isolated strength while everything else in crypto have struggled, but local top now looks in and price likely headed back to $50 support.

hope_freiheit

I long'd $USO at $71.70 after it held support with a nice liquidation grab just below the 50DMA. Heading into the winter with ongoing war in Ukraine and severe global energy supply shortage plus logistics issues, now technical confluence on the charts. I'm expecting it to test the $120 resistance again at least, if not blast through to $200+.

hope_freiheit

Bitcoin price projected against Fed net liquidity - nearly perfect correlation since the 2017 bull run, showing BTC's role as an inflation hedge for fiat dollars in the system. (h/t to Arthur Hayes and jlb05013 for the Fed net liquidity indicator)

hope_freiheit

The bear market rally in equities has been strong but is showing signs of exhaustion and topping out now. Likely headed much lower to a cycle bottom target of 2800-3000.

hope_freiheit

That most likely concludes our mini bear market rally on BTC, which was very weak and very much carried by the ETH merge pump. There was no real bid on BTC aside from mean reversion and short squeeze. We will most likely take the next leg down to my cycle low target of ~$14k in the next month or two, followed by a bottom forming ahead of the bottoming of equities.

hope_freiheit

Too soon to buy any altcoins including all "Ethereum killer" L1 crypto VC darlings. Solana likely headed to $13 support, which is another ~65% drawdown from current price of $36.

hope_freiheit

ETHBTC may be forming a Wyckoff Distribution top here, on the back of renewed merge narrative that led retail to buy into the 3500 local top, followed by a return to dominance of macro bearishness and risk-off market outlook.

hope_freiheit

USDTRY forming the crypto favourite "Dalai Lama" pattern?