hungry_hippo

hungry_hippo

Earlier today I commented not to go long today because XLF hasn't completed it's pattern yet. This is the pattern I was talking abut, H&S on the daily chart. So unless congress does something over the weekend to rescind tariffs, XLF will complete this pattern Monday. I didn't short it because I expect congress to do something, but it's a matter of when. When...

hungry_hippo

Based on the action the last 2 days, I'm actually feeling bullish on cryptos, lol. Cryptos have been tracking the market lately, especially on selloffs, so the dissociation with the market drop is bullish. People will notice, several followers have already commented on it. As more people notice, they'll flock to crypto as the "safe haven" that crypto nerds...

hungry_hippo

1) I told everyone not to go long until congress decides to rescind all of the tariffs 2) I said the futures gap might not fill for an extended period of time, but all gaps will fill. This one will not happen until the tariffs are rescinded by congress or the next president, lol. 3) I said like COVID, this drop will probably break a lot of rules. So far it's...

hungry_hippo

If you think the market can't go any lower, you're mistaken. It's been a while since it's happened (housing bubble crash), but monthly indicators can go oversold. We're not there yet. If congress doesn't step in and rescind the tariffs, the stock market will get cut in half like it did back then. It's gonna be nearly impossible for corporations to match even...

hungry_hippo Updated 

So apparently the reason why gold fell this morning is because gold has 8% tariff premium built in, that is what the March pump was all about. Turns out gold is exempt from tariffs, and so is silver, so silver dumped the entire March pump. So the fact that gold is exempt from tariffs basically means that it basically got pumped 8% today because it didn't drop...

hungry_hippo

Gap is still open but market is cycling down. RSI is not oversold yet. Probably a bounce when RSI hits oversold, but I don't expect a big one until the daily gets oversold. Market took such a big shit that firms had to sell gold futures for to cover losses and margin calls. So gold is red now as well. SO that play also appears to be done. Too bad I didn;t...

hungry_hippo

Imagine getting one hour to think about what to do after the Trump speech, and coming up with the idea to sell your only winner (gold futures) at market price immediately after the one hour break, lol. Probably sold it to buy more index futures, lol, morons. Apparent that is what at least one of the algos did. It looks like all of the algos are desperate for...

hungry_hippo

Spot price for gold is up close to 1%, but futures (red line) is up only half of that. Looks like the algos are desperate for cash and selling futures for less premium than usual. I think we've all done it a time or two, especially when we were starting out trading, where we sold our winners to cover the margin call for the loser stocks only to watch the winner...

hungry_hippo

Kinda expected that there will be an open gap after the break. Algos are trying desperately to bring futures back up, and much like I told you the other day, they're selling gold futures to do it. So much gold future that it's not tracking spot price, lol. I don't think I've ever seen that aside from when oil futures went negative during COVID. Probably gonna...

hungry_hippo

I have no idea what this market is doing, NQ is overbought on MFI and they're still trying to pump TSLA after bad news, lol. In any case, I dumped my GLD calls after open, and bought back in after they sold it off to pump the market. Still going with long dated GLD calls, the Asians seemed pretty bullish on gold even if the US market is selling gold futures to...

hungry_hippo

Looks like they turned the algos on so here's the 3hr chart update. Just because they turned the algos on doesn't mean good news for the bulls, ES MFI is almost overbought, I expect it to get there at market open. 7am right now. So basically I'm expecting the market to fill the down gap then drop again. Don;t expect any more updates today, I'm going to work now.

hungry_hippo Updated 

YM, RTY, and ES all have futures gaps though very small because most of it filled. It took 2 weeks to fill the down gap last time, so I'm not gonna get excited about it this week, but the gaps will fill eventually. Just letting you know. POsting RTY because the gap is most obvious.

hungry_hippo

NQ actually dropped afterhours today, so now it's sitting right at support. It already dropped below the intraday support. Keep an eye on it Monday

hungry_hippo

SPX threw a wedgie intraday, expected more of a bounce when it broke out, I guess there's no bounce when the algos are shut off. Also, futures broke support after hours. (ES1! is SPX futures, I plot it all the time.) I don't recommend going long until after the tariff announcements. This market is super sketchy now.

hungry_hippo

I was way late to the party buying puts today because I thought it'd bounce when my futures indicators hit oversold, but I did catch part of the initial drop, and then re-entered the trade when SPX broke support and financials lagged a bit. Figured XLF had to also make a new low, and the "h" pattern gave me a target around $49 - $49.05 so I flipped my puts...

hungry_hippo

You can see in the chart that during the initial Feb/March drop that the algos were still running, and we'd see at least a small bounce when MFI/RSI got oversold, however you can see that they shut the algos down yesterday, MFI totally flatlined for 2 days which is something that did not happen on the initial drop. So basically, there's no point for me to plot 3...

hungry_hippo

So MFI hit oversold this morning as the gap filled, so I figured we'd get a bounce.... but it looks like hedge funds sold off every algo pump and MFI totally flatlined at the bottom. How do I know hedge funds were liquidating? Crap like FCEL went green because they close their short positions when they close their long positions. Yeah, I got a little stupid and...

hungry_hippo

1) My apologies for getting the PCE release date wrong, it's Friday, not today. Still made money on my XLF calls plus AAPL also went up this morning. 2) There's a small open gap on ES, RTY, and YM from the one hour break after market close. It looks like it might fill overnight. Make sure you check tomorrow morning. 3) The gap below is still open, and it...