iamthewolf

iamthewolf

Happy New Year! This month's chart builds on the path shown in each prior month's chart and reflects upward momentum from 2019. We're navigating through Wave 5 of higher degree following the significant bottom reached in March 2009. December 2018's low ended Wave 4 within the path since 2009. At present we're in lower degree wave 3 (within Wave 5) as witnessed...

iamthewolf

We've hit November's target (previous chart), then set at 3150+ and marked with red X last month, and now approach 2019's close. Time for an update and new target. This month I'll zoom out a bit (user request) and carve a path for wave 5 into 2020. I've added a path since Dec 2018's low (wave 4's end) with eventual target set north of 3650, now marked by red X...

iamthewolf

My previous monthly posts (Aug-Oct) showed the expected path upward in Wave 5 from the 2009 bottom. Last month's post zoomed to the mid 2019 wedge formation. As anticipated that wedge/triangle formation resolved to the upside (see Oct post). Some will expect a re-test before further market advance while others will expect a failed breakout, thus fakeout. This...

iamthewolf

October, the month of Halloween, witches and most importantly...baseball playoffs. Ok, market uncertainty should get a mention, too. Elliott wave theory has many examples that reflect market uncertainty, including flat(s) and wedge patterns. One basic rule about them is this: The market generally exits in the direction from which it entered. In today's market...

iamthewolf

August's sideways movement was constructive for the early September jump. Support is now reinforced at the 50d and 200d MA. A straight line up is clearly unexpected, but weakness allows for entry at favorable levels. There is plenty to like about the shape of the daily chart since the December 2018 low. Structurally it is similar to wave 1 of BOTH wave 3 and...

iamthewolf

Been an interesting 2019 thus far. My earlier weekly charts (discontinued earlier in 2019) led the way throughout 2018 to the decline in Oct-Dec 2018. However, the ENTIRE wave 4 decline was defined by what I then considered only the "A" wave of 4 ending in Dec 2018 (see earlier weekly charts). See yellow arrows in PPO Oscillator for wave 2 and 4 comparison to...

iamthewolf

A great deal of time has been spent between 2600-2800. Another rejection at resistance (2800+) keeps us in that range once again. Surely a familiar place where many positioning decisions have been made. In Elliott wave terms the rejection, thankfully, completes wave B and provides valuable information about what to expect. The shape of wave B shows strength...

iamthewolf

Market continues to outline the shape for long term expectations. The important area is at hand above 2800 with two remaining important peaks to surpass. January 2018 and September 2018 are the last hurdles for this momentous move since 12/26/18. At present we're in the area of .764 retracement from September's high to December's low. Surpassing .886 in the...

iamthewolf

'Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.' - George Santayana. True? Perhaps. This week's chart takes a look at recent history, zooms in using a 1 hour chart, and updates the a,b,c move since December 2018. First, the update. Shocker, but I'm not perfect. I'll readily admit that my use of Elliott Wave is far better at higher degree waves than...

iamthewolf

Happy Days are Here Again! What can possibly go wrong? Fed Put - check! Tariffs/Trade resolved - check! (maybe). Giddy sentiment with giddy-up - check! I admit I'm impressed, but not convinced. Navigating the market since October's decline has been difficult, but rewarding. Like many, I plan on holding my rewards. So, what to do, besides worry or...

iamthewolf

One of these things is not like the other....fun game? Maybe a more serious one when it comes to your Portfolio. So, where's the Bull? This week I added a comparison of Equities to Bonds (U.S. Treas) to support the Elliott Wave position described in the last few week's charts. That position remains unchanged from an Elliott Wave and Fibonacci perspective. Wave...

iamthewolf

One of these things is not like the other....fun game? Maybe a more serious one when it comes to your Portfolio. So, where's the Bull? This week I'm adding a comparison of Equities to Bonds (U.S. Treas) to support the Elliott Wave position described in the last few week's charts. That position remains unchanged from an Elliott Wave and Fibonacci perspective. ...

iamthewolf

The tremendous rally of 2019 continues to pass through upside resistance. Impressive moves above the 50d sma and then Fibonacci level of 2698 are in the rear view after last week's march higher. What's next? You likely guessed correctly that 200d sma at 2741 followed by another (higher degree) Fibonacci level near 2800. Always the case :) A wider perspective...

iamthewolf

Feeling more confident in in Central Banks now? Over in Europe the chatter is about delaying the start of Balance Sheet contraction due to economic weakness. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve bankers are piling on Chairman Powell's flip-flop (Powell Put I) from December tough-talk into sounds of a dove's cry. Not a Mic was spared as a parade of calls for slower...

iamthewolf

Seems like just about everyone is awaiting or predicting a re-test of the December 2018 low. Bulls and Bears alike look to history and high frequency of re-testing prior support or resistance. Bulls are looking for a second chance to buy lower in anticipation of further advance. Bears are convinced further declines are ahead despite the current rally's...

iamthewolf

Has the "all clear" signal been issued? The bounce from 12/26/18 through 1/11/19 is truly historic, without question. A look at A/D metrics (summed ratio over "n" days) puts the event among the top in the last 50 years, or more. In most cases the period after seeing an extreme high of the ratio is one of further market advance, but not always and not...

iamthewolf

Fed Chairman Powell took the reins from Ms Yellen with promise of increased transparency and a less dovish persona. He stayed true to his purpose, until 1/4/19. His fold on Friday introduces a new narrative with an old ring - I call it "The Powell Put." Like many before him a supportive narrative for markets becomes prominent. So what does it mean? We're all...

iamthewolf

Holidays are super fun....maybe. We look ahead to celebrating a New Year with the arrival of 2019, but just like losing holiday pounds we have some baggage to deal with. The correction starting in October 2018 is still in progress and is shedding points from prior excess. What can we expect? I'll keep it brief and at a high level since my last couple of weekly...