iamthewolf

iamthewolf

Headlines scream "Worst December since 1931" while anxiety returns for investors. Where does today's decline fit in the big picture? What expectation can allow for individual planning and risk management to navigate potential turmoil? In this week's chart I zoom out for perspective and provide milestones to monitor. Applying Elliott Wave to estimate market...

iamthewolf

Since my first introduction (October) of the "abc" correction the question in my mind has always been "and then what?" Decreasing risk (positions, size) has been beneficial since October, but there is a time to reverse that process as the trend starts turning again. When is that expected as the decline's pivot begins? Elliott Wave is excellent for anticipating...

iamthewolf

Overbought, then oversold? The tug of war (and opinions) continues. What does sideways imply? Last week I listed several factors that technically provide guidance to interpreting near-term market movement. Since then we've bounced around in a sideways pattern. That suggests caution (delay) and awaits the unfolding of pattern. Lower highs and higher lows are...

iamthewolf

Several important tests are ahead as the year comes to a close. Will the market pass the tests, and if not what consequences are ahead? Let's take a look at several important technical levels starting with the week's opening. 1. Moving Averages: Simple and widely followed, the 200d MA is where Friday's close sits, with the 50d MA slightly higher but...

iamthewolf

Black Friday was fun for bargain grabs, but not so much for buying stocks. Are better bargains ahead, or will prices rise now that sales events are over? Unlike price guarantees when retail shopping, no such benefit exists when buying equities. Market anxiety has increased with higher levels of bearish sentiment and a week of lower stock prices. Technical...

iamthewolf

Wave count still unfolding as anticipated. Important time just ahead to guide markets near term trend. Failure to exceed 2815 has potential for a sharp downward thrust. Success above 2815 points to further healing before an expected "C" wave occurs. Thanksgiving is a great pause to connect with what is really important, whatever that means for you personally. ...

iamthewolf

Ever wonder what EXACTLY is being corrected by a market decline? Pundits will argue about magnitude of decline to fit definitions like "correction" or "Bear market" by distinction of 20%, more or less. But what is being corrected, beyond just prices being too high? This week's chart delineates earlier market increases to reflect WHAT is being corrected in...

iamthewolf

This week's chart reflects my intermediate term thinking. The correction has been well anticipated, though the initial decline happened a bit below the expected price level for Wave 5. However, the move was "on time" where Elliott Wave calls for price as primary and time as secondary. I believe that is wise in general. My (market) vote is in: The correction...

iamthewolf

Investors and traders are infamous for comparison of their results to benchmarks or as relative performance vs others. An obsession with bragging rights, or one's pride, can be dangerous to long term performance. Meanwhile, a measured approach based on understanding how corrections evolve can be a guide during market volatility. Attempting to "Call the (exact)...

iamthewolf

Has the upward trend of wave 5 ended, or is there a final thrust awaiting to once again frustrate bears? A review of where we've been and a longer term perspective is now called for. This week's chart includes expectations for what follows wave 5's terminal point. A pair of illustrations is provided for you to assess risk vs reward in the event of either...

iamthewolf

What happened last week? End of the bull move since 2016, or bump along the way higher, or warning for what's ahead? Like you, I consistently evaluate what the market is telling us. Also like you I ask, am I wrong? Have I missed something? Last week I was wrong about the depth of the pullback. For pure EWT assessment, the low at 2710 is worth significant...

iamthewolf

Publishing early this week as I expect to be completely out of pocket for a few days, maybe the whole week. Is October scary, as I asked last week? Not much so far (but is just a little). A pullback was expected, though it surpassed what I thought would be support in the 2880-2890 area. Respecting the potential for a drop to 50d sma (or in my case 55d ema) is...

iamthewolf

Market followers know that October is the month where several historic drops have occurred. Will this year produce another chapter in market lore? If you've been following along you likely know my expectations. If you haven't, then take a look at earlier charts where I wasn't bashful about expecting a market decline ("abc") at late 2017 - early 2018 with full...

iamthewolf

The journey from February to targeted new highs continues. Last week's outlined triangle provided upper and lower boundaries for the continued march upward with a bounce off lower support line. So what's next up (target)? The wave 5 move as profiled since early 2018 has proven resilient and continues showing the way up. A pause at S&P 2950 area would be...

iamthewolf

Crunch time is approaching for Wave 5, which has been a beacon for good results since early 2018. I've added a diagonal line (orange) between the channel path (yellow) to assess very near term movements for wave 5. That narrowing focus provides a crunching view to guide the way. Regarding wave 5 we're approaching the final process before it eventually corrects,...

iamthewolf Updated 

This week's chart will be used to explain market correction in context of February's decline and the current pullback of last week. I'm very surprised by change in sentiment in only 4 days of trading. My perspective for expecting new highs has not changed, and is based on understanding the corrective process. The market seemed to hold up well on Friday despite...

iamthewolf Updated 

Football season is finally here! Time to start thinking Red Zone, whether scoring or playing defense. This week's chart coincidentally includes a Red Zone at Fibonacci level SPX 2916. Last week SPX 2916 proved to be a near term top of the recent ascent. Positioning there for a brief (shallow) decline was worth an attempt and may still play out a little further...

iamthewolf

A slow week awaits as minds turn to Labor Day Weekend and unofficial end of Summer. The Dog Days dwindle as new highs are reached. I can finally stop writing about new all-time highs now that SPX has checked that box. DJI will follow, as it has throughout. The Wave 5 path followed since February's low has been rewarding with potential for further...