iamthewolf

iamthewolf

Wave 5 remains in progress to new all time highs for SPX. So how do we get there from here? A map and use of Fibonacci levels frames a potential path to new highs in this week's graph. There are two degrees to keep in sight that provide resistance and support as we move higher. Last week I wrote the pullback would be to 2795-2815 and we hit the middle near...

iamthewolf

Well, last week was a little sloppy. Let's try again! Last week I suggested we could use a pullback, but called an audible/abort on Monday once SPX exceeded 2848. I was not comfortable positioned for a pullback since it is against uptrend to expected all time highs. Net result: I'm still not comfortable positioning for a pullback since I only expect about 2%...

iamthewolf Updated 

The anticipated pullback was on schedule, but leaves me uncomfortable for a couple of reasons. Path is still on course for new highs. Now what? My discomfort is with determining whether to position for pullback when I expect the main trend is up for my overall position. The initial downward move was favorable to me for a trade, and I'll likely not press my luck...

iamthewolf

This week's chart is all about balance. A few new indicators are shown and I'll comment about Federal Reserve Bank Normalization for July. The path to all time highs can use a breather to gather strength as indicated last week. The process seems underway after an up/down week for markets that ended in decline. If you've followed along recently the wave 5 path...

iamthewolf

Calling timeout on the road to new highs. Main trend is still in place, but slowed momentum and calendar indicate need for a pause. Regarding the calendar, heavy schedule of Fed issuance and maturities are at hand beginning Monday 7/23/18. How it all nets out to balance flow(s) and QT objectives will be interesting to watch. We'll know more when it is over...

iamthewolf

"You can't always get what you want.....ya get what ya need" - Great British Philosopher. Uptrend continues as the whipsaw since 1/26/18 fades to background. Meanwhile, Bulls get what they need as we navigate to reaching all time high (ath). Other indices have led the way while SPX and DJI will follow. I now have much more time to dedicate to my analysis and...

iamthewolf

Time to zoom out and take inventory of the big picture. More twists and turns will surely happen, but it helps to have a plan and some signposts along the way. Seems like an eternity that I've been advocating for wave 5 to carry us to new all time highs (ath) for SPX. So many headlines and changes in sentiment have shaped the market's path in 2018. Tariffs,...

iamthewolf

The famous summer love question... I've reluctantly moved the target for end of wave 5 out to September. Relax, as trend is fine and wave 2 of that fifth wave is working through what is needed for longer term strength. This week we feature the 50d and 100d sma to show a cross above (orange over red) as the 50d (orange) pulls the 100d (red) upward once index...

iamthewolf

Ah, the question almost all of us hate to hear. Seems like the move up since January's peak has taken forever. As adults we'll all be justified if asking the famous childhood question, too. The case for new all time high (ath) is still strong as we ride along the 20d sma while getting "there." Note how several surge/impulse moves in earlier segments of the...

iamthewolf

Happy Father's Day. Market is taking time to reach expected goal. Pullback is healthy and expected. Enjoy time with family and Dad and simply relax. Sometimes no news is good news, even if when not much changes despite political news and Fed meetings.

iamthewolf

Things finally moved upward after a slight delay from the situation in Italy. Seems like long ago, but was worth the wait. Expectation is wave 5 carries to new all-time high (ath), but of course in non-linear fashion. I've made a few rough estimates using primary and alternative measures based on wave 1 and 2 of the current move up for wave 5. They all seem to...

iamthewolf

Well, there was only one famous athlete that could confidently, and repeatedly, proclaim to be The Greatest! The rest of us may get a fleeting moment, hence my tongue-in-cheek title this week. I caution you to not expect such precision as my call last week for EXACT support at 2676, being the eventual low on Tuesday as Italy flared up. Further caution: I had to...

iamthewolf

How do you explain 2018 thus far? Up, down, nowhere.... What happened and where are we? The headlines say, employment costs and interest rates (Feb), trade/tariffs (March), Noko/no go (May). What next? Resolution of the first three, or more DOJ/Trump news? Stay tuned...meanwhile, I've taken a look backwards to figure out what to look forward to. I'm...

iamthewolf

If your a fan of Hockey or Soccer (Football) you probably have screamed SHOOT! when your favorite team appears to have a golden opportunity to score. Looking at this week's chart has me screaming SHOOT! Unlike being a low risk sports spectator, my scream requires a little more discipline (since I HATE to lose). I've zoomed in to show my primary Elliott Wave...

iamthewolf

The boisterous bears since February's decline will likely suffer FOMO. The case for the bulls has gained significant strength technically, economically, and even politically. Last week's narrative described how the unwind process for rates, tariffs, and other fears can provide strength in reversal to higher prices. How much translates into FOMO and buying...

iamthewolf

Everyone is focused on the triangle from January's peak to present day. My view from last week has not changed about that (abcde and up we go). One good thing about a triangle is getting traders focused on time - namely the triangle's end. In Elliott Wave Theory we're always focused on time (wave endings for multiple degrees of waves). Yes, we all can count to...

iamthewolf

Is it really as easy as "sell in May and go away" (until November)? We're about to find out. This week I'm adding a few more vivid visuals with thick 100d and 200d sma lines. Look to the left and see what happens when they cross. A look to the right says we're nowhere near that happening (soon). Most technical analysts are looking at the same picture, but...

iamthewolf

Climbing the proverbial wall of worry is at hand once again. The initial move upward from 2553 on 4/2/18 is getting a needed pause. Identifying an adequate pullback level can provide opportunity when followed by the resumption of higher prices. However, to get there you need to get comfortable with the one word many don't like hearing, beginning as children - wait!