ianrdouglas

ianrdouglas

The sixth wave down is always the strongest. I see projections of an Elliot wave E incoming, and much lower than 45. Some say low-30s, or even mid-20s. I lean in the other direction: the completion of the seventh wave of a seven-wave structure. A repeat, more or less, of what happened in 2017 on the final run up to the blow-off top. Would that be the end of...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Please see linked analysis for an explanation. This is the scenario I'm leaning towards currently.

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is long to explain, but in essence the backdrop here is a macro Fibonacci running from the base of the last bear market and placing the 0.236 on the peak of the retracement rally, 04 September 2018, before capitulation. The hypothesis I'm working with, based on analysing previous bull runs, is that this placement gives a projection of the top of the next...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Please see linked analysis for an explanation. In my view, this scenario has the least confluence.

ianrdouglas

A lot of people right now need to know where the base of BTCs April correction may come in, and me too. Is this is a correction, or is BTC stepping down into a mini bear market, with possible lows incoming in the 40s, if not 30s? I will leave that question to other charts I will post soon mapping three scenarios relative to what I see as the macro...

ianrdouglas Updated 

*** Please see the previous iteration of this chart for the full explanation. I'm updating this to add in the macro channel, amended from a previous chart, relevant to this movement, if the upside movement continues. Looking at February, there are two ways to project price action based on that comparison. I'll link screenshots below. 1) Scenario 1. This...

ianrdouglas Updated 

This is entirely speculative, especially with regards to the timeline. But this is a simplification of what I see happening next, if the bullish trend continues. 1) The macro Fibonacci is based on placing 0 at the bottom of the last bear market, and 0.236 on the peak of the retracement rally before capitulation following the 2017 bull run peak. Precisely, this...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Quick update to this chart. Essentially, I'm seeing a middle ground between a first chart I made ("BTC: Bullish bonanza opportunity incoming?" linked below) and the first version of this one. Projecting the base of this current correction to come in this weekend at around 50.3k. I rotated the channel to account for this possible new base. Interestingly, this...

ianrdouglas Updated 

18 April broke a lot of the structure I think many of us were working with as we track BTC's current bull run. Yesterday I published a chart I was working from on Sunday that looked into what levels could hit if 18 April was the start of a deeper correction. However, I would have expected continuation by yesterday. BTC continues to range. While I would expect...

ianrdouglas Updated 

I could be wrong. But piecing together a series of charts I've been exploring, this is the simple and stripped down version of what I see currently. 1) BTC is working its way up a macro Fibonacci that goes back to 09-11 December. 2) The 21 February correction formed a top and a base of a channel of a seven-wave movement to what I think will be BTC's bull run...

ianrdouglas

Further to my "final wave" chart (linked below), this is what that fractal may look like on the wider chart, if BTC can haul out of its current dip. Currently, that's a big if. The bearish scenario would lead BTC to drop possibly as low as 46.4, or even 42.7. Recovery and resumption of the bull run would probably be drawn out in that scenario, with a period of...

ianrdouglas

In case BTC hauls out of its dip, possible representation of the next (and in my view, final) wave up. This is a wave from February, but holds to a structure we could possibly see play out. Feel free to comment.

ianrdouglas

I published this chart 4 April. It's interesting to revisit, and I didn't expect the CME gaps would be filled in this manner. What I had expected was a fairly tame third tap on the descending trendline, around 10 April. Instead, on 10 April, we saw a dramatic impulse to the upside. And then another, after a period of consolidation. What is interesting in...

ianrdouglas Updated 

Price action in the last six hours puts a full correction in April squarely on the table. If this plays out like it did in January and February, we can expect a significant further drop in the coming hours. Using Fibonacci analysis of previous corrections as a guide, we can project — though not confirm — that BTC hit the 0.702 in its initial downside impulse...

ianrdouglas

While I think BTC may be starting now a major correction akin to those in January and February, we should bear in mind two other things: 1) On the BTC Dominance chart, this last drop coincides with a historical support level that was important twice in the past: 03 April 2019, and 23 September 2018. The next major support level down dates to 29 March 2018. 2) On...

ianrdouglas Updated 

1) BTC encountered resistance at the 60-62k level for a whole month. While it has thrown many mixed signals across its major moves, the push up 13 April — compounding the push 10 April — was strong. 2) Neglecting to backtest the trend line it broke 10 April, today we have seen a backtest of the trend line it broke 13 April, and it seems we may see a strong push...

ianrdouglas

A closer look at the confluence in Fibonacci levels and BTC's January to present movements if we take the 09-11 December double tap (see linked analysis) as the base. Full extension would be 83.6k. Feel free to comment.

ianrdouglas

A different look at today's double-tap on 60k. Taking the last double-tap outside the 6-month channel as a base (09-11 December: see linked chart), I was interested to see how Fibonacci levels might align to major structure and the rough projection from the previous chart of the next higher high. This may be a flawed approach, but a few observations: 1) At the...