On one hand, my fib uptrend (see related idea) from months ago is holding up surprisingly well, although the fractal has drifted pretty out of sync (I've adjusted it here, but even still).
But, everything else on my chart is pointing at this as another fakeout:
• still stuck in a downward triangle
• at the convergence of 128 and 300 DMA - these could cross, or...
Chart Notes
This chart is in logarithmic scale, at a weekly timeframe.
(In green) upwards Fibonacci channel, starting from August 2015 (inside of our broader upwards channel from beginning of BITFINEX history, in white)
(In Blue) A projection (slightly scaled) of the price action between July 2013 and July 2018 (this encompasses the first Bitcoin 'bubble',...
...Maybe?
When you look at things on a larger timescale, and in log-scale, things don't look so bad.
In fact, they look pretty good.
'Nuff said.
(Chart is in logarithmic scale)
(P.S. sorry about the lines on the RSI chart - they are from analyses at other time-scales. They are out of alignment here and can be ignored.)
In my first published idea here (mid-September), I suggested that BTC seemed poised to fall and re-test the bottom of a long-forming descending wedge.
Well, it did fall, but not quite to the bottom of the wedge. For the first time in a long while, we started forming higher lows. This trend has continued, and we now find ourselves in a very nice looking ascending...
Short-term analysis.
We're in an ascending wedge -- which is inside of a long-forming descending wedge, but is the first time we've seen this kind of sustained bullishness like this, at this point in the cycle, in a long time.
It's looking promising that we could break out soon. But it's also a critical moment, we could go down further and re-test the bottom of...
With all the ETF hope and news in the air again, and the impressive amount of volume over the last few days, we reach that regular part of the cycle where the chorus of 'THE WORST IS OVER!! BITCOIN TO THE MOON!!" starts to be heard loudly once more.
I think we have a few more legs down before we're likely to complete the market cycle and start a recovery. We're...
