Russell made the historic run out of the ICL on Nov 8th. Bigger picture, there are other cycles that have dominated Russell for the past few years. It is pretty clear that the 480 CD cycle has been the most in sync with the Russell. That would be due for a cycle low in mid-March. The current ICL/ICH runs until mid-January, but it's clear that the majority of...
At end of July, beginning of August, the market put in a similar move that broke below weekly support, only to find the upward sloping moving average below. There are some differences though. NQ (Nasdaq) not cooperating and TF (Russell) is in a very precarious position at the top of its channel after a blow off move out of the ICL. Still remains to be seen if...
Note the analog off of the Feb 11 2016 ICL. Near vertical run for 16 bars with a near identical reading on the Fisher Transform. Friday, Nov 25 completed the same pattern -1 TD. The differences between now and then is the distance above the 20 EMA. In Feb, it took only 5-6 TD's for the 20 EMA to "catch up" and resume the rally into the ICH several weeks...
This is possibly one of the more interesting plays going forward. The 2014-16 decline mirrored the 2007-09 decline (price wise almost a perfect match). The recovery or retrace is tracing out along the same analog (2009-10). There appears to be another dip ahead (per the analog) before an explosive move higher into 2018.
A look at the Oct 2014 major thrust with minimal pullbacks overlaid on current prices. Projects to 2290+ area (similar to the original ICL projection posted several weeks ago).
The cycle low (ICL) posted several weeks back did turn the market, however, the Russell 2000 is now at the same percentage gain during the initial phase of the ICL back in February of this year. A very dicey trade at these levels as the market does not even pullback during the thrust out of the cycle lows. Notice the distance above the 200 period MA. (100 pts)...
Bars Pattern (12/29/15-02/09/16) overlaid on current AMZN chart. Even though the indicies are still in their up cycle, AMZN has been in a pullback since tagging the Upper Channel Line in early October. Projects for a decline to approximately $620.00
Take note that the Feb 11, 2016 ICL (initial thrust) is identical at this time to the recent thrust in IWM out of the Nov 8, 2016 ICL. Upper channel resistance just above. This will either create a sideways condition or mark at short-term high (I believe).
The Short-term cycle's are showing some good symmetry in this timeframe. Roughly 195 bars (37TD's). Sentiment is very bad currently in the PM sector.
The SPX is following the Brexit analog pretty closely (and the ICL arrived on time-Nov 8)-See Previous Posts. This suggests that a potential low tomorrow at approximately 2146.00 (area) before another surge to all-time high's this week. Will it happen? We'll soon find out.
Bars Pattern of rallies out of ICL's. Confirmed ICL on Nov 8, 2016 as anticipated.
As ugly as the price action appears currently, each respective market has its own way of shaking out the majority and making it appear to be the worst possible time to trade counter the trend. Gold cycle (ICL) appears to be roughly 165 TD's (give or take a few). This is the window currently and a potential completion at the lower bound of that trendline. ...
IWM (Russell) showing relative strength today (outperforming the other stock indicies SPY, QQQ). It has been the leader on the way down and will probably be the leader on the way up (if the ICL is correct). Here are the previous cycle windows (roughly 135-137 CD's). Nov 8th will be in that window.
Based on time-cycle symmetry. Roughly 94-98 bars (Cycle Highs), 97-bars (Cycle Lows).
Note the symmetry via short-term hooks in the Fisher Transform Indicator. Measure the time difference between the extreme values and uncover the short-term cycle length. 17-18 bars in recent months.
Still progressing as anticipated. Bounce area 45.81-45.90. Projected short term swing high around 50.50 (if continues to follow analog.
A closer look at the cash index (SPX). Short term channel resistance into the rectangular area above current prices with the potential path towards the ICL on 11/8.