jsaettele

jsaettele

I remain of the mind that Cable is headed towards 1.3730 or so but the path to get there might be choppy. A drop under 1.3888 would make the decline from the high in 5 waves. The implication then would be that GBPUSD bounces before realizing another down leg. 1.3830/40 is a possible support zone for GBPUSD now. This is where proposed wave 5 would equal...

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Silver made high at 28.33 last week and is just above a possible ‘trap door’ (breakdown) level. A break under 26.14 would lead to accelerated downside. This level is defined by the line off of the November and January lows and center line of the channel from the 2/1 high. For more charts and ideas, visit scandinavianmarkets.com

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USDCAD carved a key reversal/doji today after cutting through the lower parallel of the bullish fork from the December low. Recall that the median line was precise resistance so expectations are that the lower parallel provides support. So far, so good. Near term upside levels of interest are the month open at 1.2789 and daily reversal resistance (1/28 close)...

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The EURUSD rally consists of 5 waves so expectations are for a drop and then another leg higher. My ‘guess’ is that a prolonged range is underway from the January high. Markets oscillate between trending and ranging periods and EURUSD has been trending higher since March 2020. A reset of sorts is needed in the form of a range. For now, pay attention to...

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AUDUSD oscillated around the noted resistance zone all day before finishing with a small range key reversal. Another stab at .7760 isn’t out of the question in order to test the line that connects the highs since early January. I’m liking a short into that level. Visit scandinavianmarkets.com for more analysis and ideas.

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S&P futures hit the line that crosses highs since November and made a large outside day today (engulfed the prior 2 days). The day ended with a doji (not perfect but close enough). The trendline and candlestick combination suggest that this could be a top of sorts. View scandinavianmarkets.com for more commentary.

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.7675ish is still a possibility in AUDUSD. Today’s drop held the line off of the 6/15 and 6/30 lows. That line has been an important pivot since early October as resistance and then support. As such, a break below would indicate an important behavior change. So, watch for either AUDUSD to test .7575 (then see what happens) or turn bearish on a break under .7458.

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EURUSD held the center line of the channel from the 11/2 low…again. This line has been support since 12/9. Clearly, it’s important. One scenario to consider is that weakness since last week is a 4th wave within the 5 wave cycle from the November low. If this interpretation is correct, then a drop to 1.2060/70 would unfold before one more leg up unfolds.

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Be aware of .7637 in AUDUSD for possible resistance. This is the 38.2% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high. The line that extends off of the 2008 and 2015 lows (red line) is near there as well. This line was a useful reference point during the second half of 2018 (highlighted).

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An Elliott case can be made for a strong USDNOK rally to get underway soon. To review, the decline from the March high was in 5 waves (textbook by the way). Since the September low, we’ve had a leg up and a leg down…waves A and B of a proposed 3 wave correction. As such, wave C is due to get underway and end above the September high of 9.6158. Reversal...

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Bitcoin has reached a major parallel. High today was $24 below the 2017 high. When a rally is described as a ‘breathtaking rocket ship launch‘ (see www.dailyforex.com), I tend to think that the market in question is near a peak. Visit scandex.com for more updates.

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SPX is back to the line that connects highs since 2018. Remember, this line crosses pivots for the last 90 years. Visit scandex.com for more updates.

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GBPUSD did see that final spike into 1.3382. Again, this is daily reversal resistance and the median line from the structure that originates at the September 2019 low. An 8 hour volume reversal also triggered (see scandex.com). I am looking lower with initial focus on the well-defined 1.3000.

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Gold tagged proposed resistance on Friday and dumped today…beautiful. Price is quickly approaching the long held support near 1780. This level is an important parallel and the lower channel line from the bearish channel off of the August high. I’ll be paying close attention to 1780 for reversal evidence. Visit scandex.com for more!

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Near term USDTRY subdivisions are clear from a wave standpoint. This bounce is probably a small 4th wave. Ideal resistance is the former 4th wave high at 7.8920. A rally to there would present a chance to short for a drop to new lows with 7.3950 or so (former resistance) as the next level on the downside. Visit scandex.com for more ideas.

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EURUSD turned lower after spiking above the important 9/10 high. As mentioned yesterday, my ‘favored’ view is that action since the September low is a B wave. Focus is lower in wave C towards 1.1495 (2 equal legs down would be 1.1510). Also, an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see scandex.com). These have been reliable in recent years.

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USDJPY took out nearly all of last week’s post election decline in several hours. The rally is impulsive (5 waves) so strategy calls for buying a dip. Proposed support is either 104.70s or near 104.15. Upside focus could be significant given the one sided positioning (COT), which was discussed in a note last week. Also, a volume reversal triggered on a daily...

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Based on long term slope analysis (parallels), USDTRY reached resistance last week. I like the short side now…that simple. Also, a bullish volume reversal triggered on a weekly basis for TUR (see below). Previous signals have coincided with USDTRY tops. Also, EidoSearch results are overwhelmingly bullish TRY (this was originally published at scandex.com please...