jvrfxalerts

jvrfxalerts Updated 

As compelling a technical long position as I have seen in a while. My entry order at 1.0701 was triggered and the first target is 1.0760. Powell's speech tomorrow morning may boost or tank the position.

jvrfxalerts Updated 

The FOMC and ECB have rattled the markets a little with their mutual commitment to continue hiking. However, the USD has the clear advantage 4.75% and the EURO at 3.00%. In my opinion the future outlook for both currencies will be 25 basis point hikes. I am cautiously long and will short at 1.0820 if the chart indicators agree. I am still working on my short target idea.

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Long USD/JPY after price touched 1/16/23 close and reversed. Short term studies reversing higher. Stop below 128.35 1/20/23 daily low. I understand that the markets often react in an opposite direction than what Powell and the FOMC just said but that is the forward looking nature of most markets. I still believe Powell was quite hawkish. He basically ignored the...

jvrfxalerts

Price has reached the approximate 50% retracement level and retreating. I’m out. Position closed and will re assess once the NFP. dust has settled.

jvrfxalerts

Possible support a little lower than this morning's low. A lower NFP print than expected is not necessarily enough reason for USD weakness. The important number to watch is Average Hourly Earnings.

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Mind the gap. What goes up usually comes down. ECB on tap. Kudos to those who were willing to ride this wave higher.

jvrfxalerts

Exited my short from 1.0980 at 1.0910, a level I had previously traded from. Price hit the 4 hour breakout level at 1.0888, the daily high on 1/18/23 and the short term EMA. I am long at 1.0895. Christine Legarde also made a firm commitment to keep hiking rates. Will be interesting to see just how much of a divergence the market will price in now between the FOMC and ECB.

jvrfxalerts

Updated stop after another look. ECB on tap later tonight.

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Sold EUR/USD at 1.0980 (3/20/22 weekly close). Wide stop at 1.1010(above instead of what the charts tell me which should be a stop above 1.0988 4/5/22 daily high. My take is that Powell is quite hawkish with a firm commitment to tame inflation . More hikes to come and no talk of pausing. Today's close extremely important.

jvrfxalerts Updated 

EUR/USD is ranging on higher level. Entry order to sell at 1.0910 and will cover short before FOMC. Stop above 1.0950. Profit TBD.

jvrfxalerts

Short EUR/USD at 1.0874 with stop above weekly high of 1.0887. Triangle is narrowing. Keep an eye on the bigger picture. All the Asian markets are open again.

jvrfxalerts

Bought the bounce off 1.0850 this morning and exited at 1.08888 the 1/18/23 spike high. Went short again at this level with very tight stop above the 1.0901 daily high printed so far today. I do not expect a major movement in price based on the PCE print tomorrow. At best maybe a retest of the breakout close of the daily candle 1/16/23 at 1.0822 Saving some dry...

jvrfxalerts

Price is reversing from previous 4 hour highs. PPI huge miss despite sticky inflation. Stop above daily high. AUD/JPY also reversing

jvrfxalerts

USD data leading up to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on 2/1/23 will determine traders bets on a 25 or 50 basis point hike. I believe 75 points are not on the table. In addition, GBP data has not been great plus high inflation persisting. Two members of the BOE also opposed another rate hike at the last meeting. I have taken a small short which is...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

EUR/USD has finally closed on a daily basis above 1.0870. I covered my short at 1.0840 this morning after USD PMI print was just slightly better than expected but still in contraction territory. The Euro zone PMI print last night, however, had moved it over the expansion level although German manufacturing(surprisingly so for the economic engine of Europe) was...

jvrfxalerts

Seems like a no brainer to buy AUD/JPY after yesterday's AUD CPI print but I was burnt twice this month with the unexpected BOJ rate policy announcements. I did go long yesterday at 92.10 after price had pull backed from the initial spike and exited at 92.70. Long again today at 91.85 with stop below 91.40. Profit target TBD

jvrfxalerts Updated 

EUR is extending price after comments from ECB's Knot over the weekend. The price is starting to run into significant resistance and only a daily close above the 50% retracement from 1.2349 to the low of 0.9536 will invalidate the short. Knot is a known hawk but conversely, Brainard from the Federal Reserve who is considered to be more of a dove was not quite so...

jvrfxalerts

I am now publishing what was just a comment in the MINDS section before. This is more for my own purposes than anything else. I need to keep better track of my trades and this will be helpful moving forward.