kaxo1

kaxo1

The chart shows that it's under the bearish trendlines, but has held above some key supports. When the ADX turns up, if the red DI is still up then we'll likely see a fairly large selloff, but it's still completely up in the air. Long-term fundamentals are the worst we've ever seen, but it's possible that the economic data is manipulated for the release this week...

kaxo1

Looks like it's indicating a top here in the very near future. It would line up perfectly with a breakdown of the current trend in the 3-year channel and a bounce of the 20d SMA off the 50d SMA. These indicators aren't really used for estimating price points, but the mid-term trend would be the channel bottom around 2800-2850ish, most likely sometime in early to...

kaxo1

A trend-reversal is all-but confirmed at this point, and the 200d MA lined up nicely to save day for the 500, but it appears to be bear-flagging and there's a lot of downward pressure, so how long will it hold? We could see a bounce up to the 10d MA before testing the trendline again, but with the 1d MACD still very bearish and the 50d MA is looking even more-so...

kaxo1 Updated 

Always possible for an upwards breakout, but this looks like a perfect short setup. It’ll be interesting to see if this is a catalyst for the next big move

kaxo1 Updated 

Can't get any higher, but the moving averages have finally caught up to it. Look for a drop below to the 45 EMA, and if that holds it'll probably act as support until even that starts to squeeze. Once it's below those moving averages, it's going to be weak. It's starting to look like the end ... Not much time left before the inevitable drop unless some big money...

kaxo1 Updated 

As I mentioned last week, this horizontal stagnation in price action is likely going to be a battle between the 3-year resistance line and the 45 EMA. We saw a breakdown through the 3-year resistance line, but then a strong piercing line through the 45 EMA showed strong support, denying the reversal and sending it back into the bullish half of the BB. The 3-year...

kaxo1 Updated 

Chart speaks for itself. Tend to see a waterfall back to the bottom of the channel as soon as it touches the top. I doubt this is breaking down to the upside, seeing as its history for wanting to find stability back in the channel trends as soon as it leaves (hence the insane volatility outside of the channel). It already failed to breakout and retouched the top,...

kaxo1 Updated 

To me this looks like a pretty standard correction after the big selloff on Friday, which is seen by the bullish divergence on the RSI. It has retraced to the neckline, so the direction for the rest of the night/morning will most likely be decided by if it holds or not, which by the decreasing volume it looks like it won't. Overall it is still looking pretty...

kaxo1

So yes, it closed at a daily high above the 45EMA, up almost 2% on the day after a short selloff at open. That's a perfectly reasonable claim for a bullish mentality, but I just wanted to point out a few things here that I'm seeing and try to tie it into what I think is going on. First, the most noticeable thing, is that the shape. Look how similar that price...

kaxo1

Let's start with what we're seeing on the chart. To me, this is a pretty bearish chart. Yes, it bounced off the 50d SMA,but it bounced back off of the 3-year resistance line just as convincingly. In doing so, it created a new bearish channel which it failed to break out of all week. It peaked just out of the top of the BBs last week and just closed below the...

kaxo1 Updated 

Given the OpEx tomorrow and the record number of options expiring, the MMs have brought out all the stops with their algos, which have neatly arranged the chart into a systematic bear pennant. This would line up well with cash opening in which pension funds and dividend hunters will likely sell-off their shares, but chances are that the MMs will only allow for a...

kaxo1

The stars have aligned ... literally 2 weekends ago there was a lunar eclipse and this weekend there is a solar eclipse. Ironically, they mark the side corners of this diamond formation that has appeared on the chart for every major world indices. It's a chart pattern that is define by "uncertainty", and is confirmed by the increased volume. Both that pattern as...

kaxo1

The market patterns are still looking very unhealthy, but this diamond pattern could be a huge indication that this is a major top into the late-June/early-July bottom that people are expecting. It's at a point of great uncertainty, so if you decide to take a position make sure your SL's are above or below the diamond, respectively.