kilo1romeo

kilo1romeo

follow up from Nov 25... Majority of supply is slowly being absorbed in the $88 - 90 range. Light supply above until $99. Short term bearish (long term bullish) as price tests back into demand zone approx $86. Churning that eats up the remaining supply as this area of resistance has been tested in late 2008 early 2009 and mid 2010. The next run into supply...

kilo1romeo

Demand outstripping supply on this small pull back. Y'day lo supply signal. Excess demand signals in background with a #3 on 2014.12.01. If this changes, I'll update. Channel defined. Target dates align early Jan 2015. Seasonality supports.

kilo1romeo

Getting nervous yet? Spreads contract, equities typically run higher and vice-versa. Well, spreads have been expanding and yet equities have surged higher. Small caps have not participated like the SP500. Perhaps one is lying? "Long" spreads expanding. Some reading from the NBER National Bureau of Economic Research: Credit Market Shocks and Economic...

kilo1romeo

This is the daily chart showing the trade set up. This may be my only opportunity to get a pull back to add b/4 this takes off to cruising altitude. I'll attach weekly, monthly and AAWW vs SPY monthly charts. Currently long less than a typical 1/3 position. I would like to add if AAWW pulls back at this trend line intersection. You'll understand when I attach...

kilo1romeo

Getting bloated and looking to take a nap. Way above trend in P/B, P/S & P/E. Operating Margins falling due to steep discounts and debt piling up due to acquisitions . Not a good mix. A pull back to bottom of channel at approx $55 would be a healthy corrective move and a return to more normal valuations. Best short opportunity with the least risk is on a pull back.

kilo1romeo

Bull run looks over. Likely bounce on trend line and s/r confluence btwn 166.70 - 165.33. Then target 159.93

kilo1romeo

Copper looks like dis-inflation (dare I say "deflation") is a real possibility. Global growth is often reflected in this industrial metal used in electronics to building construction. Multiple consolidation price patterns are forming and massive distribution has obviously taken place. This all happening while crude oil has fallen out of bed, global equities have...

kilo1romeo

I've been long DE Deere and have added during the recent pull back Nov 17th moving my avg to $83.81 from $81.35. I don't like the "Pro Active" sell paint bar print today. That could very well be defensive positioning ahead of earnings. If DE gaps down severely, I'll most likely be able to reduce a bit with out too much damage. I am very long time bullish on the...

kilo1romeo

Showing accumulation as traders anticipate the ECB to provide support and buy sov bonds. If Euro breaks down more, it will be very ugly as the longs since mid Oct liquidate. Long to 1.262

kilo1romeo

Seeing more distribution as E6 Euro continues to show accumulation. $86.975 looks like a re-test. Good risk-reward here. keep light.

kilo1romeo

Long until $120 then trim. Trailing stops currently moved up to mid $90's. Looks like AAPL could run sideways towards trend at approx $115 then proceed higher. Looks like profit taking on 2014.11.21.Fri. No supply signals at this time to concern me. I will attach weekly & monthly charts to this thread as a comment.

kilo1romeo

I stuck with DE Deere as it is contained between the two displayed cyclical s/r levels. Pros stepped in on 2014.11.17 and absorbed supply. Earnings is up next. I expect a push to s/r at 88.62 to front run earnings.

kilo1romeo

Before FOMC, I believed IWM was poised to break thru fib ext 1.618 at 118.15. Now in two days, I now have a short term excess supply signal as IWM tested down. Circumstances changed. I have changed with them. I expect the fib 1.5x as a target 112.07. Back and fill.

kilo1romeo

Auction action big time. tough to navigate. I dont day trade, but my friend sitting next to me does. This chart helps him. We also watch the VIX etn VXX intra-day. Short bias intra day only. Hastily presented chart. My apologies.

kilo1romeo

Long JMBA at open. Favorable demand flows. Coiling under s/r. Swing trade, not long term. I had close out a short of JMBA in Oct. It was part of a long/short spread trade: long RRGB Red Robin, short JMBA. That holding period was 3 weeks. Now long JMBA and still long RRGB. RRGB position was reduced for risk.

kilo1romeo

Pro buy signal yesterday was the clue that DE Deere & Co was headed back to challenge s/r $88.82. Just above $88.62 was where sitting sell orders were encountered. I'll bet some of those orders will get lifted. Add to long position. This is my opinion and my actionable idea only.

kilo1romeo

I expect small caps to rebound at support today. Health of mkt depends on small/mid size business. IWM Rut2k had difficulties under the 1.618x fib ext level from 2007-2009. No "Excess Supply " signals is bullish here. SPY hanging just ABOVE 1.5x fib from 2007-2009 and can make a move to its 1.6x fib ext while the IWM runs to its 2.0x fib.

kilo1romeo

That dirty industry is getting a slight lift thanks to China. IMO this is a trade. I have no position (ever). $16.87 looks like an outlier target. $13.50 looks better for now.