kiwiwalnut

kiwiwalnut

In hindsight - that yellow arrow was not such a good idea as it is now blocking the view of PA in previous post. Brief recap: PA broke though 0.72 so likely to head for 0.73 for second shoulder of POTENTIAL S&H pattern - reminder that it is potential just like in GBPAUD post. NZD is in a strange place right now so would warn against trading NZ news events - in...

kiwiwalnut

Looks like H&S forming on the daily ( as per yellow arrows ) but needs to break current resistance and TL @ 0.72 level (reference graph in comments section). If it does break this resistance then the road is clear for 0.73 again. Before anyone gets excited - wait for the dust to settle from NZ inflation data from today and wait for US open first. On first...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

It is due for a retracement to 0.71653 ~ 0.720 levels but waiting for trend line retest and PA to see direction of this pair. Keeping a close eye on momentum indicators and PA to determine if it will have the strength to break this TL. So if PA is not proportional to momentum and price stalls at support ~ 0.70375 - then we will have the beginning of a...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

A few different outcomes for this with a wedge forming on 1D timeframe. Edging towards the very end for a break out - currently resting on structural support around 1.4573 area and close of bottom of trend line. Could make a false break and head back towards the upper trend line of the wedge - if so 1.5 area will be key resistance and good place to short if PA...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Pattern forming nicely on daily chart. Look for possible short entries around 0.77 Possible SL above 0.78

kiwiwalnut Updated 

This will be the area of interest before I put any shorts on

kiwiwalnut Updated 

At Key Support level: Structural > Red Trend line > Green Fib . White Wait for retest and whether PA closes beyond or gets rejected before picking your direction. personally going to long but will short if there is clean break

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Structural support and fib and DMA on the 4 hr - entering long now - NZ data expected to be epic strong and move down suggests one of two things: 1) Market not convinced housing boom driven growth is great parred with untrustworthy data from China and also pricing in overhyped GDP data for NZ. 2) Setting up for big upwards moves soon - Flip side to above. if...

kiwiwalnut

Start looking for long entries - NZ data to be strong and the Fed not likely to rise rates Sept. Resting on structural support and fibs Risk is to the downside - use appropriate SL according your plan and rules. Good luck

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Catch a quick small retracement from EMA and fib confluence and structural support 4:1 RR. Entered @ market

kiwiwalnut

Waiting for short entries to parity before longs

kiwiwalnut

Currently riding this up - half position off for profit and remainder to ride up to 1.77 with break even SL ( link ). Planned entry around 1.78 mark with strong support / resistance and also shoulder line of potential head and shoulders. 2 entries planned and to be confirmed pending PA and events . 1) at should line 1.7775 ~ 1.78 with SL above PRZ 2) after...

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Potential long targeting just below 1.77~ area. Market entry with stop below .618 fib. Don;t expect any bad news that will change recent surge in pound. RBA neutral albeit plain statement. GDP tomorrow see lets see. Waiting to short this as per linked idea where potential inverted head and shoulder is forming

kiwiwalnut Updated 

Upcoming NFP will be sensitive after Yellen's hawkish speech. Expecting a lot of volatility as markets need to interpret what figure will be considered strong enough to may be increase rates in Sept. Expecting 200+ figure would bring Sept rate hike to ~60 %. Below 150 maybe see retracements across the board on most USD pairs. Personally feel that AUD will...

kiwiwalnut

Look out for possible inverted H&S for correction and upward moves. Fundamentals support such a scenario and will update after work :P

kiwiwalnut

Very early days to map potential moves of NZD - this is my feel. Likely to see a ranging trending grind up to 0.75 area ( white box ) until further development with news and data. RBNZ expected to have one more rate cut by year end and Fed outlook for rising rates decreasing - see where the market will take us. No matter what Wheeler says - I am bullish on the...

kiwiwalnut

2 targets looking to achieve one more touch of upper TL that is also descending triangle. Looking to short around 1.52 - if it gets there

kiwiwalnut

Graham Wheeler has been saying the Kiwi is over valued for as long as I can remember - as well as almost every other central bank in the world. There has been three things that has been plaguing Wheeler for some time; interest rate disparity, house prices and commodity status of the Kiwi. All of which to be fair, are largely beyond his control. NZ's macro data...