luna_capital

luna_capital

It looks like the past couple of years could reflect a blow off top of the trend channel dating back to 1998 on Berkshire Hathaway. I believe the catalyst to this would be the heavy portfolio weighting to AAPL which reflects a similar chart pattern.

luna_capital Updated 

US dollar index is currently sat at supporting trendline, currently shorting GBPUSD and EURUSD whilst this holds. Signs of a breakout on GBPCHF so building a short position here in anticipation of another wave lower.

luna_capital

The VIX has setup this triangle pattern over the past year, if it manages to breakout of this range then I would expect a large and fast sell off in risk assets. Another rejection here would lead to a relief rally perhaps until the VIX reaches the lower trendline. Straddles might be the best way to play this trade.

luna_capital

The dollar continues the march upwards within this trendline, it looks like a triangle pattern is setting up here (green) so will need to keep an eye on a potential breakout in either direction to determine where we go in the short term.

luna_capital

This trendline seems to have held up so far on the Nasdaq and offers an entry opportunity for a short position, on the shorter timeframe chart, a head and shoulders pattern has setup over the past month.

luna_capital

From a purely technical standpoint it looks like the euro will eventually make its way to the bottom of this trendline potentially finding support with the low made in 2000. Fundamentally I believe that the ECB will struggle to balance the fight against inflation whilst also catering to the needs of individual countries raising the risk of a sovereign debt crisis.

luna_capital

Recently had a bounce off $85 support and have developed and broken out of what looks like a falling wedge pattern. Looks like a good setup to try for further upside on oil.

luna_capital

Have a similar pattern developed across risk assets. ETH has just broken out of this ending triangle pattern and looks like equities are to follow.

luna_capital

Watching for a reversal here on bond yields to determine direction for equities and the dollar. Expecting that a follow through here would also indicate a reversal in risk assets and support for the dollar.

luna_capital

Possible breakout of this long term triangle pattern, looking for a follow through for confirmation

luna_capital

Looks like a triangle breakout to the upside is developing on the 2 year and therefore potential for a further surge in short term yields. This will put pressure on risk assets if correct.

luna_capital Updated 

Breakout of this consolidation pattern to the downside, poor earnings this week could be a catalyst for a large follow through move

luna_capital

Retesting the down trendline here on Microsoft, good risk reward setup for a short entry. On the long term chart there is an ending diagonal setup which also supports this.

luna_capital

Retest of the trend line here and a good area to re-enter short positions on the basis that the overall market is still in a downtrend. There is a risk of economic warfare between China and the US which would have a high impact on Apple.

luna_capital

Adding to Apple short on retest of this trendline targeting ~$130

luna_capital

This long term triangle pattern has been setting up for over a year now so could potentially be a very large breakout, perhaps coinciding with the upcoming stock split.

luna_capital

Bitcoin has setup a triangle pattern here, waiting on a breakout to indicate direction.

luna_capital

The dollar is attempting a breakout of this triangle, I am expecting a large move once it does and could be followed by a further sell off in markets.