marketfellow

marketfellow

03/17 S&P may come to 2350 soon which is technical oversold rebound level. However, do not expect too much on rebound because of outstanding downside momentum. Its volume and price pattern may suggest possibility of break through.

marketfellow

03/16 Even worst case scenario for DJIA is 18000 where strong support and rebound located. It is about -4000 to go. But it can be reached in few days if markets keep falling in this speed.

marketfellow

03/15 It is hard to imagine but it is possible. Full retracement back to January 2019 where this rally started, is 6185 for Nasdaq. Only defense is 7300 but it looks fragile. Watch out another wild trading actions tomorrow and coming week that everything is possible.

marketfellow

03/13 S&P has another low volume oversold rebound. Downside target is 2350.

marketfellow

03/13 S&P has another low volume oversold rebound. Downside target is 2350.

marketfellow

03/11 Tomorrow (03/12) may become one of the most memorable trading day with gap-down, circuit breaker, and maybe same day reversal. Friday (03/13) and next Monday (03/16) may be similar. 7300 and 6185 are reference for potential rebound. Fasten seat belt and get ready.

marketfellow

03/11 Worst case scenario for DJIA is -27% drop (29600 - 21777) within few weeks. This could be first major downtrend of coming bear markets. Remember, bear markets may be 12-18 months in length so this is the beginning of prolong downtrend.

marketfellow

03/10 S&P low volume oversold rebound is likely to fail within days. Trading range is defined between 2725 - 2850. Since downside momentum is very strong, chances for new low or sell-offs are likely to happen in coming days or weeks.

marketfellow

We made several reminders about market top, reversal (before 02/23) and warnings of potential sell-offs in the past couples weeks. Now, the most frequently asked question is "Are We Bottom Yet ?". To answer of this question, we need to check out support level. Since all nearby supports are broken, next potential support for DJIA will be about 21777 area. It would...

marketfellow

03/08/2020 Where is the chart for next 5 days ? Let's map between March 2000 and March 2020 to point out potential reference. There is a link between March 27, 2000 and February 20, 2020 where the top occurred. Then, Nasdaq showed 7 days drop that is equivalent to 7 days drop between 02/20-02/28 2020. Then, four days rebound last week. Lastly, Nasdaq continues its...

marketfellow

03/06 Nasdaq is the only index holds up 200 DMA, long term key level. It is time to test its ability today and next week. Chances to break-hold are 80-20 based on two reasons. First, 200 DMA was broken last week. Second, today's breakdown was too close to 200 DMA. Once it breaks, next support is 7700.

marketfellow

03/05 Nasdaq is at short-term cliff where next sell-off may come soon if this level is broken (8700-8750).

marketfellow

03/05 S&P 200 DMA is at great risk of breakdown. Yesterday high price gain accompanied with low volume which set tones for potential failure on rebound effort. Once its 200 DMA is broken, S&P may fall to 2857 for its next support. Downtrend continues.

marketfellow

03/03 S&P Struggle to hold on and stay above its 50 DMA which is also January peak and breakout level. 3032 becomes a key level to watch to determine whether rebound is valid or failure.

marketfellow

03/02 Is Dow rebound or reversal ? Rebound means a brief up trend but will return downtrend. Reversal means termination of downtrend and reverses to new high. In this case, it is more likely a rebound not a reversal. Reason is that series gap-down, high volume distribution, and crossing down 20/50/200 DMA are evidence of change of direction. Therefore, it is...

marketfellow

02/27 Unusual time, unusual actions. Last Wednesday was the record high for Nasdaq100 (QQQ) but this week the picture looks very different after series of high volume, high price drops. Tomorrow (02/28) and next Monday could be one of the following three scenarios: panic selling, black Monday (extreme actions) or same day reversal (to upside). 200 DMA or around...

marketfellow

2/26 Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shows highly alert pattern from both price and volume behaviors. Gap-down breakdown cut through both 20 and 50 DMA in two days. The third day (today) came with similar outstanding volume patterns without any rebound. Also, lack of support until 195 or 200 DMA is another red flag for near term crash alert. Watch out and prepare for strong sell-offs.

marketfellow

02/26 Definitely, bears are in charge to control Dow after two heavy punches. Gap-down, vertical drop after final reversal warning signal creates technical damage that is hard to repair. It is heading toward around 25400 for its first major support.